Final Four Picks Tonight: Expert Predictions & Odds for Apr. 5 Games

• Cougars’ lockdown defense makes them a live dog against Duke
• Alamodome setting creates ideal spot for Auburn-Florida Under
• Check out expert Final Four picks for the two massive games tonight

The Final Four tips at the Alamodome Saturday night with a pair of heavyweight tilts that will decide who plays for all the marbles on Monday. SEC rivals Auburn and Florida battle for conference supremacy in the opener, followed by the tourney’s top seed Duke facing defensive juggernaut Houston in the nightcap.

After breaking down the numbers, line movement, and betting action, I’ve landed on two solid plays with value for Saturday’s Final Four showdowns.

Final Four Odds (April 5)

Final Four odds as of 4pm ET on April 5 at top-rated March Madness betting apps.

The Final four odds tonight are fairly tight, with no team favored by more than 5.5 points. Duke is the heavier of the two favorites, but as you will see in my predictions below, there’s reason to believe the veteran Cougars can make this a barn-burner.

Auburn vs Florida Total Prediction

I’m hammering the Under 159.5 in this all-SEC clash. This number has dropped from 162 despite heavy public action on the Over – a classic reverse line move that screams sharp money. The SEC’s top two programs can certainly fill it up, but several factors point to a grinder in San Antonio.

Bruce Pearl’s Tigers have morphed into a defensive monster during March Madness, giving up just 65.5 PPG while holding opponents to a brutal 38.1% from the floor. They’ve cashed the Under in five of their last six games, with those contests averaging only 138.2 total points – over 20 points south of Saturday’s number.

Auburn’s offense has cooled considerably, too, hitting just 43% overall and a miserable 30% from distance in tournament play. As long as they don’t suddenly find the switch, this game should stay comfortably under the number.

The Alamodome factor is massive here. The cavernous football stadium creates notorious shooting issues for players unaccustomed to the sightlines. Both squads rank top-10 nationally in defensive efficiency and opponent three-point percentage.

Add in their brutal free throw woes (both under 70% at the stripe in March), and you’ve got the perfect storm for an Under. Pearl and Golden will keep their defensive intensity cranked to 11 with a title game berth on the line.

• The Pick: Auburn-Florida Under 159.5 (-110 at Fanduel)

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Houston vs Duke Prediction

I’m grabbing the 5.5 points with Houston in what should be a slugfest. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars own the nation’s #1 defense, allowing a measly 56.5 PPG in the tournament. Their glacial pace (360th slowest nationally) shrinks possessions and maximizes each point on the spread.

The situational edge heavily favors Houston here. They’re playing just three hours from campus in what’ll essentially be a home game in San Antonio. This is huge – seven of the last eight Final Four teams playing in their home state have won outright.

The Cougars’ veteran core (all 22-23 years old) gives them a massive experience edge over Duke’s freshman-heavy lineup. When the pressure cranks up in the Alamodome, that veteran presence becomes gold.

Houston has thrived as underdogs, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven catching points. Their top-5 ball security (fewest turnovers nationally) and elite three-point shooting (39.7%) give them the perfect formula to hang with Duke for 40 minutes.

The betting market has this line inflated with 81% of moneyline tickets backing the Blue Devils. Even KenPom projects a nail-biter (Duke 68, Houston 66), suggesting this game comes down to the final possession. Back the Cougars and the points in what should be Saturday’s best game.

• The Pick: Houston +5.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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