UConn vs UCLA Odds, Picks, Predictions & Props for Final Four

• The #1 UCLA Bruins are big underdogs to the #2 UConn Huskies in the Final Four
• UConn has won 14 straight games, all by double-digits
• See the UConn vs UCLA odds, picks, predictions, and player props to target

Despite being a #2 seed, the UConn Huskies (35-3) are heavily favored over the #1 UCLA Bruins (34-2) in the 2025 Final Four. Paige Bueckers and the Huskies meet Lauren Betts and the Bruins at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL, tonight at 9:30 pm ET, directly after Texas and South Carolina square off for the other berth in Sunday’s national championship game. UConn, which is the -160, odds-on favorite to win the title, is a 7.5-point favorite over UCLA in Friday’s semifinal.

UConn vs UCLA Odds

The Huskies are also -400 on the moneyline (80% implied win probability) with UCLA coming back at +310 (24.39% implied win probability). The over/under is sitting at 135.5, which is exactly where it opened last Sunday.

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The UConn vs UCLA point spread opened with UConn as a 10.5-point ATS favorite and -650 moneyline favorite last Sunday, but that line was almost immediately bet down to -8.5. In the last few days, it’s moved another point towards the Bruins. The total opened at 135.5, after falling by a half-point during the week, is back at 135.5 just two hours from tip-off.

UConn’s path to the Final Four was paved with blowouts. After demolishing #16 Arkansas State (103-34), #10 South Dakota State (91-57), and #3 Oklahoma (82-59), the Huskies trounced a JuJu Watkins-less USC in the Elite Eight (78-64), getting a career-high 31 points from Paige Bueckers (20.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.8 APG) and a phenomenal 22-point, 17-rebound performance from freshman Sarah Strong (16.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.6 APG), the #1 recruit in the nation last year.

UCLA reached the Final Four with a trio of lopsided wins – #16 Southern (84-46), #8 Richmond (84-67), and #5 Ole Miss (76-62) – followed by a 72-65 win over #2 LSU. The Bruins held a 43-29 lead with 16 minutes to play but found themselves in a three-point game (56-53) with 3:23 remaining. UCLA would score the next six points to put the outcome to rest.

Lauren Betts (20.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.8 APG) had a modest 17-point, seven-rebound performance against LSU, but added a season-high six blocks on the defensive end. Junior guard Gabriela Jaquez (9.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.2 APG) – sister of the Miami Heat’s Jaime Jaquez – came up clutch with a team-high 18 points and eight rebounds, going 4-of-5 from three. It was her second-highest scoring game of the season.

UConn vs UCLA Ratings

Torvik has only been calculating NCAAW ratings since the 2020-2021 season but this UConn team is the single-best group in the history of the scale. Yes, the 2025 Huskies rating significantly higher than the undefeated South Carolina team that won last year’s national championship.

The reason? UConn has been absolutely housing every team they’ve played for the last two months and, except for one blip at Tennessee on Feb. 6 (an 80-76 loss), has been a complete nonpareil since New Years Day.

Geno Auriemma has his team playing suffocating defense; UConn has held 31 of 38 opponents under 60. And there’s hardly a player in his rotation who isn’t a threat from three. UConn’s 38.3 3P% is sixth-best out of all 362 DI teams. The Huskies’ 50.9% FG% isn’t just first in the country, it’s 1.6% better than any other team.

UConn vs UCLA Predictions & Picks

• UConn -7.5 (-110) at BetMGM
• Sarah Strong over 9.5 rebounds (+105) at DraftKings

The Huskies – like literally every team in the nation – are going to have a massively difficult time stopping 6’7 Lauren Betts in the post. But freshman center Jana El Alfy at least has the size (6’5) to make Betts work. And it’s UConn’s speed/athleticism that is its bread-and-butter on the defensive end anyway, not its size. You can be sure his A-plan on the defensive end is to deny entry to Betts, not to attempt to guard her once she has the ball.

UConn’s opponents this year have taken 40.4% of their shots from three in part because working the ball into the post against this defense is a big challenge.

One of the big problems for the Bruins tonight, even if Betts is getting the ball in her hands, will be trying to keep up scoring twos while the Huskies are reigning threes. UCLA hits at just 33.7% from beyond the arc and takes just 34% of its shots from three. The Huskies take far more (36.2%) and make them at a way higher clip (38.3%).

In addition to UConn -7.5, I’m also going to bet freshman standout Sarah Strong to hit double-digit rebounds at plus-money. She’s only averaging 8.8 per game this season but she’s been an absolute monster on the glass in the tournament. She’s averaging 11.8 RPG in her four March Madness games, most-recently grabbing a career-high 17 against USC, all 17 coming on defense.

While her teammates are forcing bad shots from the perimeter, Strong will be boxing out and cleaning up once again.