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Houston Roughnecks vs Arlington Renegades Odds & Picks (UFL)

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in News

Published:


Mar 29, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; Arlington Renegades running back Kalen Ballage (4) celebrates a 77-yard touchdown run during the first half against the San Antonio Brahmas at Choctaw Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images
  • The Houston Roughnecks do battle with the Arlington Renegades in UFL action Sunday, April 6th
  • The Renegades are whopping 10.5-point home favorites in both team’s second game of the season
  • Check out the Roughnecks vs Renegades odds, picks and predictions, below

The second weekend of UFL continues Sunday afternoon between the Roughnecks and Renegades. The home squad won by 24 points in the season opener, while their counterparts were smashed in a 25-point defeat. Unsurprisingly, Arlington is a heavy favorite in this matchup. 

Kickoff for this tilt is scheduled for Noon ET from Choctaw Stadium in Arlington, Texas. ESPN provides the broadcast coverage in the United States.

Houston Roughnecks vs Arlington Renegades Odds

TeamsSpreadMoneylineTotal
Houston Roughnecks+10.5 (-105)+425O 39.5 (-110)
Arlington Renegades-10.5 (-115)-575U 39.5 (-110)

Arlington is favored by 10.5 points, and are -575 on the moneyline. That’s an 85.19% implied win probability. The total is set at 39.5 points, with -110 the price for the over point total. 

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Houston Roughnecks Analysis

There’s no other way to slice it – the Houston Roughnecks had their necks roughed up in Week 1 to the tune of a 31-6 stomping at the hands of the St. Louis Battlehawks.

Both quarterbacks struggled, combining to go 12-for-29 for just 89 passing yards, one late TD pass, and two interceptions. Nolan Henderson was 7-for-18 for 68 yards and that touchdown (along with 54 rushing yards), while Anthony Brown was a colossal 5-for-11 for 21 yards and two picks.

Last season was also a mess for the Roughnecks, as they stumbled to the league’s worst record at 1-and-9. However, their lone victory came against these Renegades by a 17-9 score. In order to repeat that, their defense also needs a lot of work, as the Roughnecks allowed Manny Wilkins to slice and dice them for 189 passing yards on a 17-for-22 efficiency.

They were also gashed on the ground to the tune of 41 carries for 273 yards and four TD’s against the Battlehawks. Houston had just one sack and no forced turnovers.

Arlington Renegades Analysis

The Arlington Renegades aren’t exactly coming off a special season either, as they were in the basement of the XFL Conference at 3-7. However, in Week 1 of this campaign, they bullied the San Antonio Brahmas 33-9.

Quarterback Luis Perez had a quality, if unspectacular stat line with a 20-for-25 for 164 yards and one INT. The rushing attack is what propelled the Renegades to their beatdown, as they combined 31 rushes for 183 yards and found pay dirt four times. Kalen Ballage did the lions share of the work, carrying the rock nine times for 110 yards (with a long of 77 yards) and a TD. I love this stat line from RB De’Veon Smith – three attempts for three yards and three touchdowns!

The defensive effort was solid against San Antonio also, and even though the Renegades only had two sacks, they had seven tackles for loss and seven pass breakups to make life miserable for the Brahmas.

Roughnecks vs Renegades Prediction

I know it was only one game, but it’s really hard to look past the drubbing Houston put up in Week 1, with the addition of the absolute bashing Arlington laid on San Antonio in the debut game of 2025.

There is absolutely no value whatsoever in betting the Renegades -575 on the moneyline. That number just gives me indigestion. There still isn’t even a great amount of pleasure in betting them to win by eleven or more points to cover the spread, but obviously that’s the way I’ll have to go in selecting them to win this contest.

  • Roughnecks vs Renegades Pick: Renegades -10.5 (-115)

Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 19 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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