Elon Musk Will be 2025 Time Person of the Year, According to Predictive Trading Market

• Elon Musk is now the betting favorite to win TIME’s 2025 Person of the Year
• Tech-related names now make up about 70% of the predicted outcomes
• Check out the latest 2025 Person of the Year odds below, plus a breakdown of each contender’s chances

Will Elon Musk be TIME’s 2025 Person of the Year? If you go by the latest prediction markets, he’s the top pick. With deeper involvement in the Trump administration and big developments happening across his companies, Musk has pulled ahead in the odds.

He’s in a rare position that blends politics, tech, space, and even social media. That kind of multi-layered influence is exactly the type of story TIME tends to spotlight.

Scroll down for the updated odds table and a closer look at each contender’s chances of taking the title.

TIME Magazine – 2025 Person of the Year Odds

Odds as of April 1st, 2025 at Kalshi prediction markets. Sign up with Kalshi promo code “DIME“. Total trading volume: $1,775,606.

With a 37% chance, Musk is leading the pack by a wide margin. Artificial Intelligence is next at 20%, up 5 points recently, though there’s ongoing debate about whether a non-human entity should even qualify.

Musk Becomes Person of the Year Favorite

Musk started 2025 near the top of the field and has only gained ground. His growing connection to the Trump administration has made him a key player in U.S. policy, while his work at SpaceX and Tesla continues to make headlines.

That recent 2% dip in his odds might actually be a buying opportunity. His reach across multiple industries gives him a narrative edge that few others can match.

Musk has already been named Time Person of the Year in 2021, and now he’s even more influential with the Trump connection. xAI, Musk’s AI startup, has launched several models, the latest of which is Grok-3, which outperforms other AI models like ChatGPT and Gemini in areas such as mathematics, science, and coding.

AI Gains Momentum, Trump Holds Steady

Artificial Intelligence moving up to 20% shows just how quickly it’s becoming central to public life. From hospitals to financial systems to defense, AI is starting to change how the world works.

Still, 20% feels a little inflated. TIME usually chooses people, not concepts. That makes this feel more like speculative excitement than a solid prediction.

Trump, meanwhile, stays steady at 19%. He’s back in office after a historic comeback, which keeps him relevant. But TIME rarely gives the title to the same person in back-to-back years, and that history is working against him here.

Tech Dominance Defines the Odds Board

One thing is clear in this year’s race: tech is driving the narrative. Between Musk, AI, Altman, and ChatGPT, tech-related names account for roughly 70% of the expected outcome.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxCTRSCzCrk

Sam Altman, sitting at 7%, could be a sleeper pick. As OpenAI’s CEO, he’s making decisions that could shape the future of AI on a global scale. If the big story this year ends up being regulation or ethical concerns, Altman could end up front and center.

At these odds, he looks undervalued. If regulation becomes the main focus, his role could grow fast.

Should You Bet Musk to Win Person of the Year?

Musk is still the strongest overall bet. He doesn’t face the same institutional limits as politicians and moves fluidly across several key industries.

If 2025 turns into a year of major shifts—which it likely will—he’s almost guaranteed to play a central role. His mix of innovation, influence, and controversy is exactly what TIME tends to highlight.

If you’re aiming for a higher return, Altman at 7% gives you similar narrative potential with better odds than AI at 20%.

2025 TIME Person of the Year Best Bet

Elon Musk at 37% still offers great value, even after a minor drop. He stands at the crossroads of tech, policy, space, and media—making him a highly visible and likely pick.

In my final analysis, I recommend a primary position on Musk (37%) with a smaller hedge on Altman (7%) to capture the overall tech narrative that’s likely to dominate 2025. Trump has presence, but the back-to-back title hurdle is tough to clear, making him a riskier bet despite his high profile.