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Early Final Four Picks & Lines to Target for Houston vs Duke & Florida vs Auburn

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in College Basketball

Published:


Mar 29, 2025; San Francisco, CA, USA; Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) cuts down the net after defeating the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the West Regional final of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
  • We’ve finally reached the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament
  • It’s been a wild, wild ride but now it’s time to bet on who will meet for the National Championship
  • See my favorite early Final Four picks for Houston vs Duke and Florida vs Auburn

We’ve made it to the Final Four and, even though it’s early, I think it’s time to lay some bets down. These lines move and they move fast so by getting down early in the week, you set yourself up for success. You also set yourself up for a sweet, sweet alpha moment. Hear me out. It’s Saturday night and you’re going to meet your friends for the games. You locked in Duke -4.5 today, but your friends bet right before the game and they all got Duke -6. There isn’t a much better feeling in the world than telling the boys you got Duke -4.5 earlier in the week. It’s not the end all be all, but it is a great feeling. It’s the sports betting equivalent of buying something before it sells out. Won’t solve world hunger, but it makes you feel like you could.

Lucky for us, we’ve got an idea of where both Final Four lines will head before this weekend. Feels right.

Best Final Four Bets to Target Early

Game Pick Book
#1 Florida vs #1 Auburn Florida -2.5 (-115) FanDuel
Game Pick Book
#1 Houston vs #1 Duke Duke -4.5 (-115) FanDuel

Odds as of March 31 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel promo code to get a bonus for these college basketball games.

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Florida Should Get Hit Hard

I don’t know what else the Florida Gators need to do before they start getting more respect from the books. These kids have done nothing but win since the beginning of March and they’re still only a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday night. That’s a damn shame.

Even though they’re getting disrespected here, it’s great to be a Gator.

Obviously Auburn is the number one-seeded team in this tournament so they aren’t a joke. Florida will need everything they have to beat the Tigers but I doubt this line stays at -2.5 for very long. The Gators are just too much. There’s just too many of them.

We’ve already seen Florida go to Auburn and beat them on their own floor so it’s not like I’m just talking out of my ass here. The difference will be defense as Florida is a top-10 unit in the country. Combine that with the fact that they’ve got the country’s second-best offense and we’re cooking with grease. Look for this line to be at least -3 by the time this thing tips off. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Florida -2.5 (-115) – FanDuel
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Duke Won’t Be -4.5 for Long

There is only one team in the country that can beat the Florida Gators and that is the Dike Blue Devils. They’ve rolled through this tournament like the wagon they are and it doesn’t look like they’ll stop any time soon. These kids can play and who knows if anyone can slow them down.

One thing is for sure, nobody wants to see these guys.

Being 4.5-point favorites seems like a lot over a team like the Houston Cougars but it really isn’t. I could see this thing going even higher by the time this game tips. This is unfamiliar territory fo the Cougars as they haven’t been this big of an underdog all season but they also haven’t played Duke all season.

The Cougars downfall will be Duke’s offense. It sounds crazy to say that since Houston has the best defense in the country but they simply won’t stop Duke’s number one ranked offense (according to KenPom). We saw the Cougars struggle with Gonzaga in this tournament, giving up 76 points. They’ll give up way more than that to the Blue Devils. We might as well bet -4.5 now while we still can. Feels like the move.

  • The Bet: Duke -4.5 (-115) – FanDuel

John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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