Expert Elite 8 Predictions for Sunday – Tennessee-Houston, MSU-Auburn

• Check our Elite 8 expert predictions and picks for Sunday, March 30th
• Houston’s stifling defense meets Tennessee’s offensive firepower in a heavyweight clash
• Read below for my top Sunday March Madness predictions, including a player prop bet

The Elite Eight rolls on Sunday with two monster matchups that’ll complete our Final Four picture. Top-seeded Houston brings their elite defense against a Tennessee squad seeking the program’s first Final Four appearance, while Michigan State’s Tom Izzo faces his 11th Elite Eight as his Spartans battle Auburn’s high-powered attack.

After breaking down the matchups, digging into March Madness stats, and watching each team’s recent games, I’ve found three college basketball picks with real value for Sunday’s Elite Eight showdowns.

Elite Eight Odds (Sunday, March 30)

Elite Eight odds as of March 30 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Learn how to bet on March Madness with the top March Madness betting apps.

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Tennessee vs Houston Prediction

I’m laying the points with Houston (-2.5) in what should be a defensive clinic in Indianapolis. The Cougars (33-4) have been absolute monsters on that end all season, ranking second in the country in scoring defense at just 58.4 PPG. They’re riding high after that dramatic win over Purdue, where Milos Uzan dropped in a game-winning layup with less than a second left.

Tennessee (30-7) looked impressive in their 78-65 win over Kentucky, avenging two regular-season losses to the Wildcats. Zakai Zeigler was brilliant with 18 points and 10 assists, establishing a new SEC single-season assist record. The Vols’ defense isn’t too shabby either, sitting seventh nationally in points allowed.

But Houston’s paint defense is what’ll make the difference here. The Cougars hold teams to just 44.5% on two-point shots, second-best in the country. That’s bad news for a Tennessee team that can struggle finishing around the rim against elite interior defenders. J’Wan Roberts and Emanuel Sharp bring exactly the kind of physicality needed to throw Tennessee off their game.

Both teams lock down on defense, but Houston’s tournament experience gives them the edge. The Cougars are in their third straight Elite Eight, while Tennessee is still chasing that elusive Final Four berth.

Keep an eye on L.J. Cryer for a bounce-back game. He struggled with just 5 points on 2-for-13 shooting against Purdue but should find his stroke again after finishing third in the Big 12 in Offensive BPM this season.

• The Pick: Houston -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Zakai Zeigler Assists Prop Prediction

I’m all over Zakai Zeigler Over 7.5 Assists against Houston. The Tennessee junior point guard has been dishing dimes all tournament long, including that sweet 10-assist performance against Kentucky in the Sweet 16. He’s been on a tear, dropping 8+ assists in three of his last four games.

Houston’s defensive approach actually plays right into this prop. The Cougars love trapping ball screens and forcing the rock out of the primary ballhandler’s hands – exactly what they did against Purdue’s Braden Smith, who still carved them up for 15 assists despite the pressure. Zeigler will face similar heat, creating perfect kick-out chances to Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey on the wings.

The Vols’ offense runs through Zeigler, and his ability to navigate pressure will be critical to their chances. With Elite Eight intensity cranked up, expect Rick Barnes to put the ball in his floor general’s hands even more.

The battle between Zeigler and Houston’s backcourt will likely decide who punches that Final Four ticket, making this assist prop one of my favorite plays on the board.

• The Pick: Zakai Zeigler 8+ Assists (+103 at FanDuel)

Michigan State-Auburn Over/Under Prediction

I’m taking the Under 147.5 in the South Region final between Michigan State and Auburn. While both teams have potent offenses, tournament pressure tends to tighten things up in the Elite Eight, and the trends point toward a lower-scoring affair in Atlanta.

The Game Total UNDER has hit in each of Michigan State’s first three tournament games as Izzo’s bunch has embraced their defensive identity. The Spartans (30-6) showed serious heart in their comeback win over Ole Miss, with freshman Jase Richardson stepping up big with 20 points. They’ll need that defensive toughness against Auburn’s explosive attack.

Auburn (31-5) has been up and down offensively in the postseason, with the UNDER cashing in three of their four postseason games. Despite putting up 78 against Michigan, the Tigers’ offense sputtered badly in the first half (shooting just 32%) before Tahaad Pettiford and Johni Broome took over.

According to Bart Torvik’s ratings, Michigan State ranks 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency while Auburn sits at 11th, setting up what could be a real rock fight.

MSU has a clear edge on the offensive glass as the best rebounding team in the Big Ten, which should help limit Auburn’s transition chances. Expect Izzo to have his guys focused on controlling tempo and making Auburn execute in the halfcourt. The Spartans’ tournament experience (Izzo’s 11th Elite Eight) gives them the poise needed to slow this thing down and keep it under the total.

• The Pick: Under 147.5 (-110 at BetMGM)