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Final Texas Tech vs Florida Odds, Score Projections & Public Betting Splits

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in College Basketball

Published:


Texas Tech vs Florida closing odds
Mar 27, 2025; San Francisco, CA, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Darrion Williams (5) reacts during overtime against the Arkansas Razorbacks during a West Regional semifinal of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
  • The final Texas Tech vs Florida odds have the Gators as 7.5-point favorites in Saturday’s Elite Eight matchup
  • Florida is receiving overwhelming public betting support with 77% of spread bets and nearly 80% of handle
  • See the closing Texas Tech vs Florida odds (spread, total, and moneyline) plus public-betting splits and score projections

The #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (28-8, 19-16 ATS) will face their toughest test yet when they battle the #1 Florida Gators (33-4, 24-13 ATS) in the West Region Elite Eight at Chase Center in San Francisco on Saturday at 6:09 pm ET on CBS.

After surviving a thrilling overtime game against Arkansas, the Red Raiders enter as underdogs for the first time this tournament, with the final Texas Tech vs Florida odds heavily favoring the Gators.

Final Texas Tech vs Florida Odds

Bet TypeTexas TechFlorida
Spread+7.5 (-110)-7.5 (-110)
Moneyline+260-310
TotalO 157.5 (-110)U 157.5 (-110)

Florida opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and the line has shortened a point to -7.5, with heavy action on the Gators. At -310 on the moneyline, the Gators carry a 75.6% implied win probability, while Texas Tech’s +260 odds give them a 27.8% chance to pull the upset.

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The total opened at 155.5 but has trended upward to 157.5, reflecting both teams’ offensive firepower. Florida boasts the nation’s second-ranked offense according to KenPom, while Texas Tech’s attack has been equally potent, as evidenced by their 85-point output against an athletic Arkansas defense.

This marks just the fourth meeting all-time between these programs, with Florida holding a 2-1 edge in the series. Their last encounter came in 2018, when Texas Tech secured a narrow 69-66 victory.

Both teams enter this matchup playing their best basketball of the season, with Florida having knocked off two-time defending champion UConn in the second round and Texas Tech being the only team to beat Houston since February.

Texas Tech vs Florida Score Projections

PredictorScore
KenPom81-76 Florida
Torvik80-76 Florida
Haslam81-75 Florida

All three major analytical models project a Florida win by a margin of 4-6 points, which would favor TTU covering the current spread. The consensus has Florida scoring around 80-81 points, with Texas Tech in the 75-76 range, suggesting the high total of 157.5 could be within reach.

The key storyline revolves around the star players for each squad. Texas Tech’s JT Toppin, the Big 12 Player of the Year, enters on a tear, averaging 18.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. His frontcourt partner Darrion Williams (14.8 PPG) is coming off a 20-point performance in the Sweet 16.

The Red Raiders may also receive a boost from sharpshooter Chance McMillian, who has been sidelined with an oblique strain but could return for this massive matchup. He’s one of the reasons I’m backing TTU in my Elite Eight predictions for Saturday.

For Florida, Walter Clayton Jr. has been the catalyst for their dominant run, averaging 17.7 points and shooting a blistering clip from beyond the arc. The junior guard has scored 20+ points in four of the last five games. Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin provides additional firepower, having reached double figures in nine straight contests.

Florida vs Texas Tech Public Betting Splits

MarketTexas TechFlorida
ATS Bet %+6.5 (23%)-6.5 (77%)
ATS Handle %+6.5 (20.4%)-6.5 (79.6%)
ML Bet %+260 (10.5%)-310 (89.5%)
ML Handle %+260 (7.3%)-310 (92.7%)
O/U Bet %O 157.5 (77.6%)U 157.5 (22.4%)
O/U Handle %O 157.5 (69.6%)U 157.5 (30.4%)

The Elite 8 public betting trends show overwhelming support for the Gators, with Florida receiving 77% of spread bets and nearly 80% of the handle. The moneyline action is even more lopsided, with a staggering 89.5% of bets and 92.7% of handle backing Florida to advance to the Final Four.

Bettors are also expecting a high-scoring affair, with over 77% of total bets and nearly 70% of handle on the over. This aligns with the offensive profiles of both teams, though Florida’s elite defense (ranked 10th nationally in adjusted efficiency) could potentially keep the scoring in check.

Texas Tech’s tournament has been defined by offensive balance and resilience. After dominating inside against Drake with 50 paint points in the second round, the Red Raiders showed versatility by rallying from 16 points down to beat Arkansas in overtime. Florida has been equally impressive, dismantling Maryland 87-71 in the Sweet 16 after ending UConn’s bid for a three-peat in the second round.

The winner advances to the Final Four in San Antonio, where they’ll face the victor of the Tennessee vs Michigan State/Auburn matchup. Florida enters the Elite Eight as a legitimate national title contender, while Texas Tech looks to reach their second Final Four in program history after their 2019 run to the championship game.

Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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