Opening Michigan State vs Auburn Odds – Spread, Moneyline & Total for Elite Eight

• The South Region Elite Eight game features the #2 Michigan State Spartans vs the #1 Auburn Tigers
• The Spartans battled back from an eight-point second-half deficit to oust #6 Ole Miss
• See the opening Michigan State vs Auburn odds for the Elite Eight

The #2 Michigan State Spartans (30-6, 24-11-1 ATS) battled back from multiple eight-point deficits against Ole Miss on Friday night to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16. Waiting for them in the South Region final will be the #1 Auburn Tigers (31-5, 19-16-1 ATS), who took care of #5 Michigan in the second game on Friday night at State Farm Stadium in Atlanta.

Michigan State vs Auburn Odds

The Michigan State vs Auburn odds have opened with the top-seeded Tigers as 6.5-point favorites against the spread, and -278 chalk on the moneyline. The Spartans come back as +225 underdogs to win straight-up, which amounts to a 30.77% implied win probability. The game total has opened at 147.5 with -110 odds both ways.

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The Spartans remain +2400 longshots in the March Madness championship odds, well behind Auburn at +470.

Michigan State Survives Scare from Ole Miss

After a pair of uncomplicated games on the first weekend – a 87-62 rout of #15 Bryant and a 71-63 victory over #10 New Mexico, which MSU led for the final 13 minutes – the Spartans were pushed to the limit by #6 Ole Miss in the Sweet 16.

The Rebels led by as many as eight in the first half and stretched the lead back to eight (47-39) at the 12:15 mark of the second half. Senior guard Jaden Akins (12.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG) would give the Spartans a 65-63 lead that they would not surrender, two of his 13 points on the night.

Star freshman Jase Richardson (11.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.0 APG) scored a team-high 20 points while also pulling down six boards.

MSU vs Statistical Head-to-Head

Stats in the table are from prior to the Sweet 16 games.

Auburn only sits three spots higher than MSU in Net Rating at KenPom, but the gap between fourth and seventh is 6.77 points, which is as big as the difference between MSU and 28th-rated Oregon. That’s the main reason why the opening spread favors Auburn so significantly.

Auburn Races Past Michigan Late

After a pair of double-digit wins over #16 Alabama State (83-63) and #9 Creighton (82-70), Auburn faced a stiffer test from #5 Michigan in the Sweet 16, at least for the first 30 minutes. The Tigers took a slim one-point lead into halftime but then found themselves trailing by eight (47-39) at the 12:27 mark of the second half. That’s when Bruce Pearl’s team went on an 18-3 run, turning the eight-point deficit into a 57-50 lead that wasn’t seriously threatened thereafter. Auburn wound up covering the 9.5-point spread in a 78-65 victory over UM.

Johni Broome, the second-favorite in the 2025 Wooden Award odds, was an absolute beast while battling Michigan’s twin seven-footers (Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin) in the post. Broome finished with 22 points and 16 rebounds, both game-highs.

The offensive outburst from Broome was a welcome sight for Auburn; the 6’10 senior combined for just 20 points in 61 minutes the first two games, though he did still grab 23 boards over the first 80 minutes of tournament action.

Denver Jones added 20 points and four rebounds points in the win over Michigan while Tahaad Pettiford had 20 and three assists off the bench.

Auburn and Michigan State will meet at State Farm Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday, March 30, exact start time TBD. The winner will advance to the Final Four where either West #1 Florida or West #3 Texas Tech will be waiting in the national semifinals.