Closing Arkansas vs Texas Tech Odds, Score Predictions & Betting Splits (Sweet 16)

• The #10 Arkansas Razorbacks, the only double-digit seed remaining, face the #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders on Thursday night
• The Arkansas vs Texas Tech odds have moved towards the favorite over the last few days, while the total has jumped three points
• See the closing Arkansas vs Texas Tech odds, plus score predictions and betting splits for the Sweet 16

The #10 Arkansas Razorbacks (22-13, 16-18-1 ATS) were the only double-digit seed to survive the first weekend of March Madness. On Thursday night, John Calipari’s Razorbacks will be underdogs for the third consecutive game when they face the #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-8, 18-17 ATS) at the Chase Center in San Francisco (7:09 pm PT/10:09 pm ET) in the West Region Sweet 16. The winner will move onto face either #1 Florida or #4 Maryland in Saturday’s Elite Eight. The Red Raiders were modest 4.5-point favorites when the Arkansas vs Texas Tech spread was first released last Saturday, and that line has grown over the last few days.

Closing Arkansas vs Texas Tech Odds

As of 6:50 pm ET on Thursday evening, Texas Tech is a 5.5-point favorite with -115 odds to cover (indicating the line could still grown before tipoff). On the moneyline, the Red Raiders have moved from their opening price of -218 to -250, giving TTU a 71.43% implied win probability. Arkansas comes back as a +200 underdogs (33.33% implied win probability. Odds as of March 27 at BetMGM. Claim the top March Madness betting apps ahead of tonight’s Sweet 16 games.

The most-significant line movement has come on the total, which opened at 144.5 and is now sitting at 147.5, a full three points higher.

Arkansas won back-to-back games as sizable underdogs last week, first beating #7 Kansas 79-72 as five-point underdogs and then cruising past #2 St John’s 75-66 as seven-point underdogs.

As has been the case all season, the Razorbacks got balanced production up and down the lineup in both wins. Jonas Aidoo had a team-high 22 points against KU but was one of just four players with at least 11 points. In the win over St John’s, Bill Richmond III had a team-high 16 points off the bench while all five starters scored between 7 and 15 points.

Texas Tech was pushed fairly hard in the first round by #14 UNC Wilmington, eventually emerging with an 82-72 win. The Red Raiders had a 35-19 lead in the first half but actually found themselves trailing 46-45 early in the second before cranking up the dial. Their second-round win over #11 Drake (77-64) was more routine. After stretching the lead to 31-27 lead in the first half, TTU’s margin was never fewer than three points thereafter.

Junior forward Darrion Williams (14.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.7 APG) had a season-high 28 points in the win over Drake while leading scorer and Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin had a monster 25-point, 12-rebound double-double.

Arkansas vs Texas Tech Projected Score

All of the major analytics sites agree that TTU should win by six or seven points, based on previous results. Torvik has the widest margin of victory for the Red Raiders (77-70) while KenPom has the smallest but is just one point different (77-71).

Arkansas is by far the lowest-rated team remaining the tournament at all three sites. The Razorbacks sit 36th at KenPom, 12 spots lower than the next-worst team (#24 BYU). They’re even lower (38th) at both Haslam and Torvik. Texas Tech is eighth at KenPom, 10th at Haslam, and seventh at Torvik.

Arkansas vs Texas Tech Betting Splits

Calipari’s Razorbacks are getting a ton of love in Thursday’s March Madness betting splits, especially against the spread. The public has put 73% of ATS bets and 73% of ATS handle on Arkansas to cover as 5.5-point favorites, which makes it quizzical that the line is moving the other way. (Reverse line movement is stereotypically a sign of sharp money on the other side, in this case, TTU to cover.)

The moneyline splits show an interesting dichotomy. Arkansas is only getting 34% of ML tickets, but accounts for 55% of moneyline handle from that 34% of bets.

The public is, as they often have this tournament, hammering the over. Roughly three hours from tip-off, 80% of game-total wagers and 81% of game-total handle is on over 147.5.