Kentucky vs Tennessee Expert Picks & Best Bets for Sweet 16
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- The Tennessee Volunteers are 4.5-point favorites over the Kentucky Wildcats in their Sweet 16 matchup on Friday
- Rick Barnes-led teams are 3-15 ATS all-time as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points in March Madness
- See the Kentucky vs Tennessee expert picks and best bets for the NCAA Tournament, below
Kentucky (24-11) has upset Tennessee (29-7) twice already this season. Can they pull of the trifecta in the Midwest Region’s Sweet 16 matchup on Friday? I’m not ready to predict that, although they do appear to be a value against the spread in the latest college basketball odds. Tip-off for this SEC showdown is set for 7:39pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN, with TBS providing the coverage.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds
The Wildcats are currently catching 4.5 points, and are listed as +170 dogs on the moneyline. The total sits at 144.5, with the Volunteers coming back as -205 favorites. Per the college basketball public betting trends, early money is supporting my Kentucky ATS love. 59% of spread wagers are backing the Wildcats, and those tickets make up 68% of the handle.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Expert Picks
My decision to pick Kentucky +4.5 extends further than just their recent success against Tennessee. The Wildcats have completely turned their defense around, and it’s a major reason why they’re still standing.
Through early February, Kentucky ranked 87th on defense. Programs with a sub-75 ranked defenses rarely make a deep run in the March Madness bracket. The Wildcats flipped the switch on D after Lamont Butler returned from injury, ranking 15th over 12 games leading into their Round of 32 contest.
Kentucky has held its first two opponents to an average of 66 points. They limited Troy to 35% from the field and 25% from three, and then yielded a 43% field goal percentage to Illinois, with a 28% mark from deep.
Offensively, the Wildcats will try to replicate the three-point success they had in their previous two meetings with the Vols. Kentucky went 12-for-24 in both matchups. They enter play as the nation’s fourth highest scoring offense, and rank top-35 in assists, effective field goal percentage and three-point makes.
The challenge versus a stout Tennessee defense is a big one, but they have the depth to get the job done. Six Wildcats average in double-figures, led by Otega Oweh. The junior guard has 20 and 15 point games so far in the Tournament, while 7-footer Amari Williams has back-to-back 10+ rebound efforts.
Williams is an incredible passer as a big man, and can have the offense run through him. He’s also the team’s primary rim protector, and he’ll be counted on to thwart the Vols bigs.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Stats
Speaking of those bigs, Tennessee shines brightest when Igor Milicic Jr and Felix Okpara are attacking the basket. Otherwise, they become too reliant on their guard play, specifically Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier. The ladder is averaging 25 points per game in March Madness, while shooting 60% from three.
Lanier is the best pure scorer on either side, but the Wildcats stifled him in both previous matchups. Kentucky held him to 15 and 10 point games, limiting him to 3-for-17 from 3. The Vols have blown out both March Madness opponents so far, but the scoring outside of Lanier hasn’t been elite.
They’re averaging only 72 points per game, and will likely need to approach 80 to cover against the Wildcats squad. Given how well the Kentucky defense is playing, I don’t see that happening. The Wildcats are very live to win this game and the next, making them an interesting bet in the Final Four odds. I prefer to play them against the spread though, which is a bet the trends support.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Best Bet
- Kentucky Wildcats +4.5 (-115) at DraftKings
When conference foes meet in the Sweet 16 over the last 20 years, the underdog is 8-5 against the spread. Kentucky is the first team to beat its conference rival twice in the regular season as an underdog, and then be catching points again in the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee coach Rick Barnes has a long history at March Madness, and his teams consistently underperform against the spread. Barnes led programs are 3-15 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than 10 points. They’re 1-1 ATS in that scenario this season, and with the Wildcats superior offense and improved defense, my best bet is that a Barnes led team once again comes up short against the number.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
BET365 SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
FANATICS SPORTSBOOKBET & GET UP TO $1,000 IN BONUS BETS!
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $250 IF YOUR BET WINS
CAESARS SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD2DYW & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 BETS!
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
