The 3 MLB Futures Bets to Target Ahead of Opening Day 2025

• The MLB Futures market is full of intriguing bets to make before Opening Day
• Vladimir Guerrero is a major value to lead the league in hits this season
• See my three best MLB Futures bets to target, below

Thursday marks the official return of Major League Baseball, with 28 of the 30 teams in action. Baseball futures have been posted all winter, and there’s still time to scoop up some value before the first pitch is thrown. The oddsboard is full of season long markets for both teams and individual players, and I’ve targeted three wagers to make before Opening Day.

MLB Futures Bets & Odds

We’ll start in the hits category, where I’m betting on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to come out on top. The best odds we can find on him is +1200 at ESPN BET, which is down from +1600 just a few weeks ago.

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MLB Futures Pick #1: Vladimir Guerrero Regular Season Hits Leader (+1200)

Guerrero Jr. owns the third shortest price in this market, behind Luis Arraez, and last year’s champ Bobby Witt Jr. The ladder cashed at +3300 odds a season ago, after racking up 211 hits.

Vladdy was no slouch, recording a career-high 193 hits in 2024. He actually led all of MLB in the second half of the season, with 91 hits in 63 games. He projects to have the third most hits in 2025, but there are signs pointing to him exceeding expectations.

Guerrero Jr. has increased his line drive percentage every year since he entered the bigs. Last year, his hard hit rate was a career-best 55%, and his ability to use the entire field is a nightmare for opposing teams to defend. Vladdy’s pull rate actually dropped 7% from the previous season, while his opposite field percentage climbed to a personal best 19.3%.

The Blue Jays lineup has plenty of protection around him, so pitchers can’t approach him as cautiously as they might like. He gets a slight downgrade for hitting second, but it’s not enough to dissuade me.

MLB Futures Pick #2: New York Mets Player to Win NL MVP (+360)

The Mets boast three of the top-12 players listed in the NL MVP odds, including Juan Soto, the second choice. Of course, you could get better odds by simply targeting Soto at +550, but this market gives me two additional outs to cash my bet.

There’s not much left to say about Soto, the league’s highest paid player. He’s one of the most feared hitters in baseball, and is fresh off a career-best season. Soto is a legit triple-crown threat entering his prime. He’s got 50+ home run and 130+ RBI upside, with the potential to hit .320.

Not too much further down the board is teammate Francisco Lindor. He’s averaged 30+ home runs and 30+ steals over the past two seasons, and is an exceptional defender. The presence of Soto in the same lineup is a bonus, as opposing pitchers won’t be able to pitch around him. Lindor finished second in NL MVP voting last season, behind Shohei Ohtani.

Also in the MVP conversation for the Mets is Pete Alonso. The 2019 winner in the NL Rookie of the Year odds has twice finished in the top-10 in MVP voting, and already owns a 50+ home run, 120+ RBI season on his resume. Alonso actually knocked in 130 runs in 2022, and like Lindor, will only benefit from another elite bat in the New York lineup.

MLB Futures Pick #3: Yordan Alvarez Regular Season Home Runs Leader (+2000)

For my last selection, I’m grabbing Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez to be the regular season home run champ. Houston is once again in the World Series odds conversation, and they’ll need a huge Alvarez season to reach their ceiling. Like Soto, Alvarez is also entering his prime, and if not for three straight injury plagued seasons, he’d be getting a lot more hype.

Alvarez owns a career home run percentage of 6.1%. He’s yet to play more than 147 games in a season, but when he’s healthy we’ve seen him flirt with a 7.0% home run rate. Extrapolated over 700 plate appearances, roughly the size of a full season, that would give him 50+ home run potential.

Now, assuming he gets a bit of a bump in production in his peak years, I wouldn’t be surprised if he approached 60 home runs in a full season. His chances of playing more are increased this year, as the Astros plan to use him primarily as a DH.

Alvarez opened at +2500 in this market, and has been bet all the way down to +1400 at some books. DraftKings is still hanging a 20-1 number on him, which I wouldn’t hesitate to scoop up.