Ole Miss vs Michigan State Picks, Betting Trends & How to Watch

• The No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans are 3.5-point favorites over the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels in their Sweet 16 matchup on Friday
• The Spartans own the nation’s best three-point defense and rank 5th in overall defensive efficiency
• See the Ole Miss vs Michigan State odds, plus my picks and best trends for March Madness, below

College hoops fans are in for a treat when the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans (29-6) battle the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels (24-11) in a Sweet 16 showdown on Friday.

The Spartans clawed their way through the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, grinding out hard-fought wins over No. 15 Bryant and No. 10 New Mexico. On the other hand, the Rebels narrowly escaped an upset bid from No. 11 North Carolina before obliterating No. 3 Iowa State.

Oddsmakers have pegged Michigan State as 3.5-point favorites, according to the latest March Madness odds, with the over/under total set at 144 points. The action tips off at 7:09 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, with CBS carrying the broadcast.

Ole Miss vs Michigan State Pick

• Michigan State -3.5 (-110 at Bet365)

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I’m rolling with the Spartans to cover the 3.5-point spread in this Sweet 16 tilt. While Ole Miss has been impressive, especially in their dismantling of Iowa State, I believe Michigan State has the defensive playmakers and depth to slow down the Rebels’ attack and pull away late.

Let’s start with the numbers. The Spartans boast the nation’s fifth-best defensive rating, surrendering just 90.4 points per 100 possessions. They’re also absolute monsters on the glass, ranking top-50 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. That’s a recipe for limiting Ole Miss’ second-chance opportunities and getting out in transition, where Michigan State thrives.

Speaking of thriving, how about that Spartan three-point defense? No team in the country is stingier when it comes to opponent’s long-range shooting – Michigan State holds teams to a measly 27.8% from beyond the arc. Ole Miss loves to let it fly from deep, but they’ll have a tough time finding clean looks against this swarming perimeter D.

Another factor working in Michigan State’s favor? Depth. Tom Izzo’s squad goes nine deep, with six players averaging over 20 minutes per game. Meanwhile, Ole Miss leans heavily on their starters, with only eight Rebels seeing significant run. In a tournament setting, with short turnarounds and high stakes, having fresh legs can make all the difference down the stretch.

Finally, I can’t ignore the coaching mismatch. No disrespect to Kermit Davis, who’s done a fantastic job with Ole Miss, but Tom Izzo is a March maestro. The man knows how to get his teams prepared for the bright lights and make the right adjustments when it matters most. That experience edge could loom large if this game is tight late.

Add it all up, and I’m confident Michigan State not only survives but covers here. The trends back it up too – the Spartans are a scorching 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-1 ATS in March. I’ll lay the 3.5 points with the chalk.

MSU vs Ole Miss Betting Trends

Before placing your bets on the Michigan State vs Ole Miss Sweet 16 matchup, it’s wise to consider the latest betting trends. The Spartans have several impressive numbers working in their favor.

Michigan State has been a strong bet against the spread (ATS) recently, covering in 10 of their last 11 games overall and going 6-1 ATS in March. They’ve consistently rewarded their backers when the stakes are highest.

The Spartans have also been winning outright at a high clip, going 10-1 straight up in their last 11 contests. When facing SEC opponents like Ole Miss, Michigan State boasts a 10-3 record. Moneyline bettors should feel confident in the Spartans’ ability to get the job done.

When it comes to the total, Michigan State and Ole Miss have been trending in opposite directions. The Spartans have hit the under in five of their last six games, while the Rebels have surpassed the total in six of their previous eight. With Michigan State’s slow pace and stingy defense, the under could be a smart play.

As a favorite, Michigan State has been reliable, going 7-1 straight up in their last eight games when laying points. They’ve demonstrated an ability to handle the pressure of being expected to win.

While betting trends can be informative, they’re not guaranteed predictors of future results. As always, it’s important to bet responsibly and consider all factors when making your picks. Nonetheless, the trends do seem to favor Michigan State in this intriguing Sweet 16 showdown.

Ole Miss vs Michigan State Odds

Before you lock in those Sweet 16 bets, let’s take a quick look at the latest Sweet 16 odds for Michigan State vs Ole Miss:

One thing that immediately jumps out is the spread move. The line opened with Michigan State as 2.5-point favorites but has since been bet up to -3.5. That’s a clear sign that the sharps are leaning heavily towards the Spartans. Anytime you see the spread move in one direction like that, you don’t want to ignore it.

Now, laying 3.5 points with Michigan State might seem a bit risky, but I think it’s the right play. The Spartans have the defensive pieces to stifle Ole Miss, and their rebounding advantage should create plenty of second-chance points. Plus, with Tom Izzo calling the shots, you know this team will be prepared for the bright lights.

If you’re not comfortable giving up the points, Michigan State’s moneyline is sitting at a hefty -170. That means you’d need to risk $170 to win $100 – not the most appealing payout, but it could be a safer option if you just want to root for the Spartans to win outright. On the flip side, Ole Miss at +145 might tempt some underdog lovers, but I’m not biting.

As for the total, 143.5 feels a tad high to me. Michigan State likes to ugly things up and control the pace, so I could see this being a grind-it-out affair. Don’t be shocked if the under cashes here.

At the end of the day, I’m rolling with Sparty -3.5. The sharp money, defensive metrics, and coaching edge all point towards Michigan State getting the job done. Lay the points with confidence and enjoy what should be one epic ball game.

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Odds as of March 26, 2025, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on the Sweet 16.

How to Watch Michigan State vs Ole Miss

Don’t miss a moment of this Sweet 16 showdown between Michigan State and Ole Miss. Here’s how you can catch all the action:

Paramount+ is one of my personal favorite streaming services at the moment, and this pivotal game will be available on their first-class platform Friday. Sign up for Paramount+ right here!