Arizona vs Duke Best Bets, Picks & Betting Lines

• The 4th-seeded Arizona Wildcats are 8.5-point underdogs vs the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament play
• Duke has won 13 straight games and only once since November 26th
• See the Arizona vs Duke odds, player props, and predictions for March 27

The #4 Arizona Wildcats (24-12, 19-17-0 ATS) took care of business in the opening rounds of the tournament. We’re going to see if they learned anything from their November drubbing at the hands of the #1 Duke Blue Devils (33-3, 24-12-0 ATS) when they take on the top seed in the East Region on Thursday night. Duke, the ACC Champions, rolled to easy wins in both of their early games. Now, there is a step up in competition and an old, familiar foe.

This matchup in the East Region tips off on Thursday at 9:39pm ET from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey with CBS providing the broadcast coverage. Let’s check out those Arizona vs Houston odds along with my picks and best bets.

Arizona vs Duke Odds

The Wildcats enter into the Sweet 16 matchup an 8.5-point underdog in the college basketball odds, and +320 on the moneyline. The total rolls in at 153.5 points with the over slightly favored at -115.

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Odds as of March 25 at FanDuel. Read SBD’s guide to the March Madness betting strategy. 

Arizona has endured quite a roller-coaster season. Despite 12 losses, they were the ranked 21st in the AP Poll before the tournament started. With a resounding win over the Akron Zips (93-65) and a close triumph over Oregon (87-83), the Wildcats now stare down arguably the best team in college basketball.  

Yes, Arizona outscored its problems against Oregon. The Wildcats held the rebound edge 43-32, shot 50% from three-point range, and got a little fortunate with Oregon only making 12 of 22 foul shots (54.5%).

Duke, as usual, methodically rolled through their opponents and had little trouble with Baylor (89-66) over the weekend. The Blue Devils shot a mind-boggling 64.4%, made 19 of 23 foul shots, and held a 17-point lead at halftime. From there, they cruised through the second half to win by 23 points.

The Blue Devils drained 12 three-pointers themselves and controlled the contest from start to finish. It cemented their status as favorites to get out of the East region and the national championship. Duke is currently -185 in the Final Four odds and +230 in the March Madness championship odds.

Arizona vs Duke Public Betting Lines And Splits

The March Madness public betting splits are slanted toward Duke. If we examine the spread, 50% of the bets and 62% of the money have the Blue Devils covering. However, Duke gets 95% of the bets, 92% of the money on the moneyline bet. 

Looking at the game-total.

The game-total betting is slamming the Over: 83% of the bets and 88% of the money is on the two teams heading over the total of 153.5.

Arizona vs Duke Picks & Best Bet

Does anyone believe that both teams will score under 70 points again on Thursday night? Arizona will not be held to 55 points once more either. The question becomes how do we gauge a game predicated on Duke shifting tempos to try and shunt the Arizona pace. The Wildcats like physicality while Duke loves to isolate and set up their transition and penetration game. Open look are what it is about for the Blue Devils.

Arizona has improved greatly from that game in November. Is it enough? Most models give Duke a 75-80% chance of advancing (SBD is at 78.1%). Caleb Love needs the Wildcats’ depth to shine through. Historically, the former North Carolina standpoint has had some of his finest moments against Duke (including a Final Four from 2022). However, does Arizona have Armando Bacot coming through that door to outmuscle Duke’s forward corps?

We did not even mention Cooper Flagg yet. Flagg looks fine after rolling his ankle in the ACC Tournament against Georgia Tech. Flagg scored 24 points, seven rebounds, and three blocked shots in the opening meeting. Arizona may still not have a complete answer for him even with Tobe Awaka’s improved form and health.  

That is because Duke is on a roll.

Duke has the best net-adjusted rating according to KenPom. They are the only team ranked inside the top 4 both offensively and defensively.

While Duke is rolling along, they also have the pressure of trying to win the whole damn thing!

I like to see more points but not quite enough to tip the game total over.

The Under appears close but possible as does Arizona staying closer this time around. Duke will not have as easy a time controlling the game.

Meet March Madness with a little New Jersey flare. I take the under on the game total and Arizona to narrowly cover Thursday night.

• Arizona vs Duke pick 1: Under 153.5 points (-105)
• Arizona vs Duke pick 2: Arizona +8.5 points (-104)

Arizona vs Duke Player-Prop Picks

For those wondering about player props, we do have at least a few thoughts on potential bets.

For a reasonable number, Caleb Love to turn back the clock a bit is an option. Love is as streaky as they come but can rise to the occasion. Love desperately wants to atone for the 8-point (3 for 13 FG) effort in November.

Taking the over on Cooper Flagg and Love points are my player prop best bets.