Final Ole Miss vs Michigan State Odds, Public Betting Splits & Score Projections

• The final Ole Miss vs Michigan State odds have moved in favor of the Spartans in the Sweet 16 on Friday
• Ole Miss has already won two straight games as a plus-money underdog
• See the closing Ole Miss vs Michigan State odds (spread, total, and moneyline) plus public-betting splits and score projections

The #6 Ole Miss Rebels (24-11, 18-16-1 ATS) look to win a third straight March Madness game as underdogs when they square off with the #2 Michigan State Spartans (29-6, 24-10-1 ATS) at State Farm Arena in Atlanta on Friday night at 7:09 pm ET on CBS. The Spartans opened as slight favorites last Sunday and, just hours from tip-off, the Ole Miss vs Michigan State odds have moved in MSU’s favor.

Final Ole Miss vs Michigan State Odds

Michigan State is now a 3.5-point favorite against the spread and -175 on the moneyline (compared to -162 in the opening line), giving the Spartans a 63.64% implied win probability. The Rebels’ odds to advance have grown from +136 to +145, which carries a 40.82% implied win probability.

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As was the case with the vast majority of Sweet 16 games, the over/under in Ole Miss/Michigan State has grown significantly over the few days. After opening at 142.5, the game total is now sitting a full two points higher at 144.5.

Ole Miss will be the first SEC team that Michigan State has faced this season. The Rebels played one Big Ten team in the regular season, falling 80-78 to Purdue on a neutral court in San Diego in late November. MSU beat Purdue by nine (75-66) but had the luxury of home-court advantage.

The line movement towards the Spartans is somewhat supported by the score projections at the three main college basketball analytics sites: KenPom, Haslam, and Torvik. All three project an MSU win by at least three points, but only one has the Spartans covering +3.5.

Ole Miss vs Michigan State Score Projection

While KenPom, Haslam, and Torvik often spit out similar score projections for March Madness games, the Ole Miss vs Michigan State predictions are more uniform than most. All three have the total and margin of victory within a single point of each other.

The Rebels were 1.5-point underdogs to the #11 UNC in the first round even though they rated better than the Tar Heels at KenPom and were projected to win by a point (78-77). Chris Beard’s team jumped out to an insurmountable 44-26 halftime lead and cruised to a 71-64 win, getting a game-high 20 points from leading scorer Sean Pedulla (15.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.9 SPG).

Ole Miss was projected to lose 75-71 to #3 Iowa State in the second round, but wound up thumping the Cyclones 91-78. Pedulla once again led the way with 20 points and eight dimes.

Michigan State routed #15 Bryant 87-62 in round one, exceeding the 19-point projected margin of victory (85-65). Their matchup with #10 New Mexico played out almost exactly as predicted, just a little lower scoring; MSU took an eight-point win (71-63) against a projected score of 77-69. Coen Carr (8.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG) had a team-high 18 points against Bryant, while leading scorer Jaden Akins (12.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG) led the way with 16 against New Mexico.

Standout freshman Jase Richardson, a projected top-ten pick in the upcoming NBA draft odds, is looking to recover from an ugly six-point performance on 1-of-10 shooting from the field against the Lobos.

MSU vs Ole Miss Public Betting Splits

Friday’s March Madness public betting splits are in line with the odds movement for the game as a whole. Michigan State is getting 62% of ATS handle and 63% of moneyline handle (along with well-over 50% of ATS and moneyline wagers).

The public’s strongest take on Ole Miss vs MSU, though, is reserved for the game total. The public has currently placed 91% of O/U tickets and 86% of O/U handle on the over which, as mentioned, has already grown two points from the opening line.

The Spartans head into Friday’s game as a +2800 bet in the odds to win March Madness. Ole Miss has the longest odds of the 12 remaining teams at +10000.