Closing UConn vs Florida Odds, Score Projection & Betting Splits

• The two-time defending-champion #8 UConn Huskies are big underdogs to the #1 Florida Gators on Sunday
• Florida had covered the spread in six straight games before failing to cover as 29-point chalk in round one
• Below, see the closing UConn vs Florida odds plus score projections and betting splits for March 23

The #1 Florida Gators (31-4, 26-9 ATS) will face the #8 UConn Huskies (21-10, 15-18-1 ATS) in the second round of the West Region in the 2025 March Madness bracket on Sunday at 12:10 pm ET at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC. The Gators opened as 9.5-point ATS favorites and -500 on the moneyline when this matchup was let less than 48 hours ago. Just a couple hours from tip-off, the odds have shifted slightly.

Closing UConn vs Florida Odds

On the morning of gameday, Florida remains a 9.5-point favorite but the price is now -115 at Caesars and as short as -118 at FanDuel for the Gators to cover, which indicates there’s a good chance it moved to double-digits before tip-off. Similarly, the UF moneyline has shortened from -500 to -550.

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The game total shows a wide range. At Caesars, it has ticked up half a point from 151.5 to 152.0. But at DraftKings, it’s actually come down a full point to 150.5, creating an interesting and rare opportunity for bettors to try to middle the game total.

Florida breezed through its first-round matchup with #16 Norfolk State (96-69), getting 23 point from leading scorer Walter Clayton Jr (17.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.3 APG). They didn’t pay out for ATS bettors, though, winning by 26 as 29-point favorites.

The #8 Huskies took care of #9 Oklahoma 67-59 in a game that they trailed for less than a minute. Unlike the Gators, UConn did cover the spread in round one as 5.5-point chalk, despite an awful night from standout freshman Liam McNeely (14.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.2 APG), who was limited to just eight points on an ugly 2-of-13 shooting. Senior forward Samson Johnson (7.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) had a team-high 14 points.

UConn vs Florida Projected Score

The three main college basketball analytics sites all project a fairly comfortable Florida win, but two have them covering the spread and one does not. At KenPom, the Gators are projected to win by 11 (82-71) while, rounding to the nearest whole number, Haslametrics has a ten-point UF victory (80-70).

Torvik, on the other hand, projects a nine-point Florida win (80-71). Torvik is the least bullish on the Gators as a whole. Florida rates second in the nation in overall efficiency at KenPom, third at Haslam, and fourth at Torvik.

The Huskies are 33rd at KenPom, 30th at Haslam, and 34th at Torvik.

UConn vs Florida Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits are all over the Gators on Sunday morning. As of 9:55 am ET, Florida was getting 76% of moneyline handle on 91% of the moneyline wagers.

The ATS splits are almost as lopsided; currently 64% of ATS handle and an identical 64% of ATS tickets are on Florida to cover as 9.5-point chalk.

When it comes to the total, the public is leaning to the over but the margin is slim: 57% of game-total money is on the over so far along with 58% of the wagers.