Ole Miss vs Iowa State Predictions and Player Props

• The Iowa State Cyclones are 3.5-point favorites over the Ole Miss Rebels in the South Region 3-vs-6 matchup
• Iowa State has shot 39% from three and has been a top-three defense since early February
• See my Ole Miss vs Iowa State predictions and player props for March Madness, below

One of the most popular teams to bet against in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament was No. 6 Ole Miss (23-11) in the South Region. The Rebels foiled us in the opening round, but if at first you don’t succeed, dust yourself and try again. I’m going right back to the well on Sunday, backing Iowa State (25-9) as favorites in the college basketball odds over Ole Miss. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:45pm ET at the Fiserv Forum, in Milwaukee, WI, with TruTV providing the broadcast coverage.

Ole Miss vs Iowa State Odds

The Cyclones are laying 5.5 points and -230 on the moneyline. The Rebels come back as +190 underdogs, while the total sits at 145.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, Ole Miss hasn’t won and covered in back-to-back games since mid-January.

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Ole Miss vs Iowa State Predictions

• Iowa State (-5.5) at DraftKings

My prediction is that Iowa State punches its ticket to the Sweet 16 in the March Madness bracket. The Cyclones have played tenacious defense all season, and that’s been amplified since early February. Over the last six weeks, they rank third in defensive efficiency. They completely neutralized Lipscomb in the opening round, holding them to a season-low 55 points. They have size in the middle, and the return of Tamin Lipsey significantly improves their defense at the guard position. Lipsey averages a team-high 2 steals per game, while Iowa State led the Big 12 in that category.

On offense, the loss of Keshon Gilbert hurts, but the emergence of Milan Momcilovic cannot be overstated. Momcilovic had his first 20-point game since November in the 1st Round, after dealing with a hand injury in January. He’s the team’s best outside threat, and is fresh off splashing four treys. Since he returned from injury, the Cyclones have been lights out from three. They’re knocking down 41% of their looks from beyond the arc over that stretch, and shot 58% in their opening game.

Ole Miss meanwhile, nearly blew a 22-point lead in their 1st Round win over 11-seed North Carolina. The Rebels struggled down the stretch in a loaded SEC, dropping five of eight. Chris Beard’s team is balanced, but doesn’t do anything spectacular. They’re middle of the road in most offensive categories, and I’m betting that won’t translate into a ton of success against this strong Cyclones defense.

At the Rebels end of the floor, Iowa State has the advantage. Ole Miss ranks outside the top-150 in opponent effective field goal percentage. Enemy shooters are making 52% of their looks inside the arc, and are getting to the free throw line 22 times per game. The Cyclones are an excellent free throw shooting team, and get to the line at the Big 12’s second highest rate. The Rebels are also mediocre defending the perimeter, which sets up well for Momcilovic.

If not for injuries, I think this Iowa State team would be a legit contender in the Final Four odds. A win today sets up a likely Sweet Sixteen matchup with Michigan State, and a potential Elite Eight contest with Auburn. Without Gilbert, I don’t they can outlast both those top programs, but Ole Miss is the not in same class as those teams.

Ole Miss vs Iowa State Props

College basketball props from DraftKings and FanDuel on March 23.

• Milan Momcilovic Over 13.5 Points (-125) at DraftKings

Moving to the player props market, where I’m betting over 13.5 points for Momcilovic. He’s cleared this number in consecutive games, and in four of his last six overall. We discussed why this isn’t an imposing matchup for the Cyclones shooters, and without Gilbert, we can expect Momcilovic’s usage rate to spike. He’s put up double-digit shot attempts in seven of his last eight outings. His three-point attempts are also on the rise, with at least six in three straight.

Momcilovic’s efficiency as of late has also been sky high. He’s shot 50% or better in three straight starts, and splashed 67% of his looks in the opening round.