Oregon vs Arizona Predictions, Picks and Odds

• The Arizona Wildcats are 3.5-point favorites in the East Region’s 4 vs 5 contest on Sunday
• Arizona is 5-15-1 ATS in March Madness since 2014
• See my Oregon vs Arizona Predictions, Picks and Odds for the NCAA Tournament, below

Former Pac-12 rivals clash in the East Region’s 4 vs 5 matchup on Sunday. Online sportsbooks are giving the edge to Arizona (23-12) over Oregon (25-9) in the latest college basketball odds, but I disagree. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:40pm ET at the Climate Pledge Arena, in Seattle, WA, with TBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Oregon vs Arizona Predictions

My prediction is that the Ducks rise up in this matchup and pull off one of the few upsets we’ve seen so far in the East Region of the March Madness bracket. Oregon has won nine of its past 10 games, and is fresh off routing Liberty 81-52. They held the Flames to their lowest point total of the season, and a dismal 22% from three.

The Ducks have defended well all season, but since February they’ve been elite. Oregon ranks fifth in defensive efficiency over the last seven weeks, and has held five of its last nine opponents below 65 points.

That bodes well against Arizona, who don’t match up particularly well against the Ducks. The Wildcats are a below average team from three, knocking down only 32.9% of their attempts. They prefer to attack the rim, where they score at the country’s 11th best rate. Oregon will be up to the challenge though, as 7-footer Nate Bittle will be there waiting.

Arizona has seen its transition offense diminish lately, which is another red flag. Over the last five outings, they’re scoring only 9 points off the break. Contrast that to the rest of the season, when that number was six points higher.

Oregon vs Arizona Stats

At the other end of the floor, the Ducks can take advantage of the Wildcats leaky perimeter defense. Arizona is among the 15 worst teams in college basketball at allowing high quality three-point looks. Oregon can be streaky from beyond the arc, but the ceiling is high. In their latest win, they buried 10 of their 21 attempts from three, shooting 54% overall for the game.

Bittle is a force down low, but also a competent passer. That could prove large given the Wildcats can throw one of their two 7-footers at him at all times. Bittle has racked up 6+ assists twice in his last five starts, and can stretch the Arizona bigs out to the three-point line if things aren’t working inside. He’s a 33% three-point shooter, with at least one made three in 10 of 12 games.

Then there’s the coaching factor. Oregon’s Dana Altman has a long history of success at March Madness. Arizona on the other hand, has routinely underperformed on the big stage.

Oregon vs Arizona Picks

• Oregon Ducks +3.5 (-108) at DraftKings

Altman has been an especially good bet as a March Madness underdog and I’m betting that continues. Altman led teams are 13-6-1 against the spread when catching points, including 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more.

Oregon enters with a 6-3-1 ATS mark over its last 10 games, and are covering at a 63% rate as dogs this season. As for Arizona, their performance against the spread at the NCAA Tournament has been awful. The Wildcats are 5-15-1 ATS at March Madness since 2014. That’s the worst mark of any team in the country. They managed to cover in the 1st Round, but haven’t strung two straight covers together in the Tournament since 2013.

Oregon vs Arizona Odds

The most favorable odds we can get on my pick of Arizona +3.5 is -108 at DraftKings. The Ducks are +145 on the moneyline, and I’ll take a sprinkle of that action as well. Arizona comes back as a -175 moneyline favorite, while the total sits at 152.5.

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Odds as of March 22 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings legal states.

Per the college basketball public betting trends, sharp action is on the Ducks. Oregon is drawing 58% of the spread bets, but those tickets make up 71% of the money wagered. That means big bettors, typically professionals, see value on the Ducks as I do.