Sunday March Madness Odds, Predictions & Best Bets (Mar. 23)

• Sunday’s March Madness schedule is loaded with betting opportunities
• I’m riding the Big’10 wave and backing Illinois ATS against Kentucky
• See the full Sunday March Madness odds, plus expert predictions and best bets

Sunday’s March Madness schedule features eight compelling Round of 32 matchups, with several powerhouse programs and cinderella hopefuls battling for Sweet 16 berths. I’ve combed through all eight games and identified three best bets that offer value on today’s slate.

My Sunday March Madness picks feature a pair of Big 10 powerhouses, plus an SEC vs West Coast matchup that appears destined to soar over the game total.

Here’s a look at the Sunday March Madness odds for March 23rd, followed by my top predictions and picks underneath the table.

Sunday March Madness Odds (Mar. 23)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Mar. 23, 2025. Learn how BetMGM Rewards can enhance your betting experience.

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Sunday March Madness Pick: Illinois -1.5 (-115)

The Big Ten has been the story of March Madness thus far, going an unprecedented 8-0 in first-round action. I expect that dominance to continue with Illinois against Kentucky. The Illini are peaking at the perfect time, covering 5 of their last 6 games behind a balanced attack featuring a dynamic point guard-center duo.

While Kentucky boasts an impressive 23-11 record, their strength of schedule is questionable compared to the gauntlet Illinois faced in Big Ten play. The Illini’s signature wins over tournament teams like Texas and UCLA are more impressive than anything on Kentucky’s resume. The Wildcats did beat Tennessee, but matching up with the Vols’ unique style doesn’t necessarily translate to facing Illinois.

With both teams playing uptempo, the 170-point total is one of the highest on the board. But in a tournament setting, I trust Illinois’ defense to get enough stops. The high total also means the -1.5 spread is providing value on the better team. Big Ten chalk is the play.

• The Pick: Illinois -1.5 (-115)

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Sunday March Madness Prediction: Michigan State -7.5 (-110)

Never doubt Tom Izzo in March. His Michigan State Spartans have been one of the nation’s most profitable teams this season (22-9 ATS) and enter this matchup winners of 9 of their last 10. MSU’s top-5 defensive efficiency should completely shut down a New Mexico attack that struggled against Marquette’s middling defense.

The Spartans also boast the best three-point defense in the country, a crucial factor that limits underdogs’ ability to spring upsets via hot outside shooting. And their nearly 80% team free throw percentage is a huge advantage in a tournament setting where many games come down to late foul shots.

New Mexico deserves credit for beating Marquette, but the Eagles entered the tournament in a 5-8 slide. Don’t overreact to that result. The Lobos will be overwhelmed by the physicality and experience of this battle-tested MSU crew that competes in the rugged Big Ten. Lay the points with Izzo’s squad and watch them roll to a double-digit victory.

• The Pick: Michigan State -7.5 (-110)

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Sunday March Madness Best Bet: Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s Over 149.5 (-110)

This total seems low for a clash between Alabama’s uptempo, 3-point heavy attack and Saint Mary’s methodical, efficient offense. The Tide rank 3rd in the SEC in 2-point shooting and 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They want to run at every opportunity, pushing the pace at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the nation.

On the flip side, the Gaels are a slow-it-down team that excels at valuing each possession. But they’re far from a slouch offensively, ranking 21st in effective field goal percentage. Saint Mary’s has already shown they can trade punches with high-powered offenses, beating Gonzaga twice in three matchups this season.

Recent trends support a high-scoring affair as well, with the Over cashing in 10 of Alabama’s last 13 March contests and 7 of Saint Mary’s last 10 against SEC foes. Both teams play elite defense, but with contrasting tempos, I see this being a back-and-forth game where both offenses find success. The Over is the play.

• The Pick: Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s Over 149.5 (-110)

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