Baylor vs Duke Odds, Betting Splits, Prediction and Pick

• The #1 Duke Blue Devils are 12.5-point favorites over the #9 Baylor Bears on Sunday
• Duke shot 50% from the field and splashed 14 threes in their 1st Round win
• See the Baylor vs Duke public betting splits, plus my prediction and pick, below

From a talent perspective, the odds appear stacked against No. 9 Baylor (20-14) in their 2nd Round matchup with No. 1 Duke (32-3). Add in the fact that this is basically a home game for the Blue Devils, and I’ll be surprised if the Bears don’t get run out of the gym. Online sportsbooks agree, pegging Cooper Flagg and Co. as mega chalk in the latest college basketball odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 2:40pm ET from the Lenovo Center, in Raleigh, NC, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Baylor vs Duke Odds

Duke is currently favored by 12.5-points and -800 on the moneyline. The total sits at 143.5, with Baylor coming back as +550 underdogs. The spread has moved a point in the Blue Devils favor since opening odds were released, while the over/under has stood pat.

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This contest will take place roughly 30 minutes away from the Duke campus. We can expect a rowdy bunch of Blue Devils fans, giving Duke yet another advantage. From a numbers perspective, everything points to a Blue Devils blowout.

Baylor vs Duke Public-Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits for Baylor vs Duke show the public feels the same way. The Blue Devils are garnering 74% of the spread bets as -12.5 favorites, and 97% of the moneyline wagers. As for the total, the splits aren’t quite so extreme. 66% of bettors are on the under, predicting this matchup falls short of 143.5 points.

Baylor vs Duke Prediction & Pick

• Duke Blue Devils -12.5 (-110) at DraftKings

My prediction is that Duke overwhelms Baylor at both ends. This year’s Blue Devils squad have the second highest Net Rating all-time since Kenpom started tracking college hoops. They’re top-four in both offensive and defensive rating, and have the speed, skill and size to destroy the Bears.

Duke is the favorite in the March Madness championship odds, and is fresh off an opening round rout. They demolished Mount St Marys 93-49, shooting 50% from the field and splashing 14 threes. Flagg returned after a two-game absence, and looked like his old self. The projected first overall pick had 14 points and 7 boards, including a rim rocking dunk.

On paper, the Bears defense looks formidable, but a closer look reveals that’s misleading. Baylor surrenders high quality three-point looks at one of the highest rates in the country. They’re also small inside, leading to them yielding a 70% field goal percentage at the rim. The Bears have one player taller than 6’5″. That’s extremely problematic versus a 6’9″ Flagg, and Duke’s 7’2″ center Khaman Maluach.

Baylor vs Duke Stats

At the other end of the floor, the Blue Devils defense will clamp down on Baylor’s medicore shooters. The Bears are 139th in effective field goal percentage. They’re outside the top-145 from inside and outside the arc, and they don’t get to the free throw line.

Projected lottery pick VJ Edgecombe is an electric talent, but he shoots just 43% from the field. Duke’s defense is first in opponent effective field goal percentage, 15th in free throws allowed, and 16th in steals.

Another reason I’m making the Blue Devils -12.5 my pick, is Baylor’s horrible results when they face superior competition. Thursday’s win as a 1.5-point underdog, was their first this season when catching points. They’ve suffered blowout losses to Gonzaga, Tennessee, Iowa State, Arizona, Texas Tech and Houston, falling by double-digits each time.

Duke has lost once since November and is a perfect 17-0 at home. Given the proximity of this game to their campus, this will be a defacto home game, and Duke has an average margin of victory of 26.4 points in those contests.