Closing Baylor vs Mississippi State Odds & Score Projections (March 21)

• The #9 Baylor Bears have closed as underdogs to the #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs
• The Bears were 1.5-point favorites when the odds Baylor/Mississippi State spread was first posted
• Below, see the closing Baylor vs Mississippi State odds plus score projections from the top analytics sites

The #9 Baylor Bears (19-14, 12-18-2 ATS) and #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12, 15-18 ATS) meet in the first game of the March Madness slate on Friday, March 21, tipping off at 12:15 pm ET at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC. The Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites when the spread was first posted last Sunday, but on the morning of gameday, the Bulldogs are the outright favorite.

Closing Baylor vs Mississippi State Odds

The final Baylor vs Mississippi State spread lists the Bulldogs as 1.5-point chalk and -125 favorites on the moneyline. The Bears come back as +105 neutral-court underdogs in Raleigh. The total is sitting at 145.5. Odds as of 8:35 am ET, March 21st, at Caesars. Lock in a Caesars Sportsbook promo code for Friday’s NCAA Tournament games.

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Fading the Bears has been a fairly strong play all season. Baylor finished the regular season six games under .500 against the number (12-18-2, 40% cover rate). The Bulldogs were better, but not by much, going 15-18 (45.5% cover rate).

Both teams have skewed to the over this year. Baylor is 17-15 O/U while Mississippi State is a profitable 19-13-1 (59.4% over rate).

Both teams are relative longshots in the odds to reach the Final Four but, counterintuitively, DraftKings has the Bears (+4000) shorter than the Bulldogs (+5500) despite Mississippi State being favored in this game across the board.

Baylor vs Mississippi State Projected Score

If you’re wondering why the Bears were priced as favorites in the opening odds, look no further than the table above. The three most-influential analytics sites – KenPom, Haslametrics, and Torvik – all rate Baylor as a slightly better team. KenPom and Torvik project a one-point Baylor victory, while Haslam is the most-bullish on the Bears, projecting a two-point margin of victory.

Baylor played one SEC team during the regular season, losing badly to Tennessee (77-62) on a neutral court in the Bahamas. Mississippi State also lost badly to the Vols in a true-road game (68-56).

The Bulldogs played Big 12 team this year, beating Utah (78-73) in a “semi-home” game in Southaven. The Bears routed Utah twice: 81-56 home and 76-61 away.

The March Madness public betting splits show that the public may be coming to the Baylor side after all, even though clearly early money was on the Bulldogs. Roughly 3.5 hours before tip-off Baylor is getting 74% of ATS handle, while the moneyline handle is split 51%/49% in favor of the Bulldogs.

The public’s strongest take in the Baylor/Mississippi State betting splits is the over. So far, 79% of game-total handle and game-total wagers are on over 145.5.

If you’re looking for best bets for the game, check out Chris Amberley’s Baylor vs Mississippi State Picks & Predictions.