Xavier vs Illinois Odds, Picks & Predictions for First Round (March 21)

• The #6 Illinois Fighting Illini are 3.5-point favorites over the #11 Xavier Musketeers in March Madness first round action Friday
• Xavier is coming off a thrilling 13-point comeback over the Texas Longhorns to make the tournament
• See the Xavier vs Illinois prediction, pick & odds for Friday’s matchup

The March Madness first round continues Friday, but for the Xavier Musketeers, they’re already battle tested, having won 86-80 over the Texas Longhorns in the Midwest Region first four game Wednesday. They erased a 13-point deficit to secure their berth in the tournament. They’re 22-11 (13-8 Big East) on the campaign, while the Illinois Fighting Illini are 21-12 (13-9 Big Ten). The college basketball odds favor Illinois by 3.5 points.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:45pm ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. CBS will provide the television coverage in the United States and TSN in Canada.

Xavier vs Illinois Prediction

The Xavier Muskateers are looking to win a first round matchup at this tournament for the first time since 2018. The Illinois Fighting Illini are no stranger to advancing, having made it to at least the second round in three of four years. That includes their run to the Elite Eight in 2024, where they eventually bowed out to the eventual champion UConn Huskies.

In the 86-80 victory over Texas in the First Four, senior Marcus Foster was their surprising leading scorer, putting up 22 points. That was a season-high, after putting up just 22 total points in his previous five affairs.

Illinois averaged more points per outing this year and therefore the higher offensive rating, though Xavier clipped them slightly with a better defensive rating. The Fighting Illini got pasted in the Big Ten tournament quarter-final by Maryland 88-65. That came on the heels of winning four straight by an average of 15 points. Freshmen Kasparas Jakucionis led the team in points (15.0) and assists (4.6) this year.

This #6 vs #11 battle won’t feature teams expected to be the national champion in the March Madness odds. On FanDuel, Illinois is +9500, while their counterparts are +28000.

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Xavier vs Illinois Pick

• Illinois Moneyline (-162) at DraftKings

When I was looking at the numbers for both these squads, something really stood out – Xavier is 2-11 this season when they’re an underdog on the moneyline, which is stark. Illinois, by contrast, is 18-7 as a favorite.

It’s hardly me sticking my neck out on the line to tout the -162 favorites, but they’ve averaged 83.8 points per contest, good for a tie for tenth in the nation, matched with #1 seed Auburn. The Musketeers average 5.5 less points at 78.3. Illinois’ experience in big games also matters, with them riding high off the vibes of their Elite Eight run last season. The X-Factor could also be that of Illini guard Kaparas Jakucionis, who some feel could be an NBA Draft Lottery pick in the upcoming draft.

Xavier vs Illinois Odds

The Fighting Illini are currently favored by 3.5-points and they’re -162 on the moneyline, while the total is sitting at 160.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the public likes Illinois to hold serve, with 69% of moneyline bets on the -162 favorites. 64% of wagers are on the over 160.5 point total.

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I still can’t shake Xavier being 2-11 this year as a moneyline favorite, despite them taking eight of their last nine overall duels. Illinois’ three-point percentage is without question a concern (31.1%, far off the best team in the nation 39.8%), but the Fighting Illini are second in the nation in rebounds (42.5).

In the Xavier vs Illinois odds, our model has the Musketeers to cover the 3.5 point spread, but lose on the moneyline. It also has the total going under the 160.5 listed number.

Be sure to check out SBD’s other March Madness content:

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