Xavier vs Texas Odds, Picks & Predictions for First Four (March 19)

• The #11 Xavier Musketeers are a 2.5-point favorite over the #11 Texas Longhorns in Wednesday’s First Four game
• Xavier is 18-0 this season as a favorite on the moneyline
• See my Xavier vs Texas odds and predictions for the Midwest Region First Four contest, below

The #11 Xavier Musketeers (21-11, 13-8 Big East) have won seven of their last eight games, though they dropped their most-recent contest to Marquette 89-87 in the Big East quarterfinal last Thursday. Wednesday, they will face the Texas Longhorns (19-15, 8-13 SEC), who lost 83-72 in the SEC quarterfinals to Tennessee. Wednesday’s college basketball odds have Xavier as the slight favorite. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:10pm ET at UD Arena, in Dayton, Ohio, with TruTV providing the broadcast coverage.

Xavier vs Texas Odds

The Musketeers are currently favored by 2.5-points and they’re -166 on the moneyline, while the total is sitting at 151.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the public likes Texas to pull off the upset, with 55% of moneyline bets on the +140 underdogs.

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Third All-Time Meeting Between Xavier vs Texas

These two teams don’t have a huge history against one another in the NCAA tournament, but in both instances, the Longhorns came out on top. In the 2019 NIT, Texas survived 78-76 in overtime, then in 2023, the Longhorns were victorious 83-71 in the Sweet 16.

The Musketeers are a perfect 18-and-0 this season on the moneyline as the betting favorite. The Longhorns are 5-7 as underdogs. Xavier is 12-6 against the spread when they’re favored to win the contest. The over point total has hit in ten of Texas’ last 13 contests.

How Is the Public Betting Texas vs Xavier?

Texas vs Xavier public betting splits as of 5:33 pm ET, March 19.

Roughly four hours from tip-off, the March Madness public betting splits show Texas getting an identical 55% of both moneyline and ATS handle, leaving 45% for Xavier in both categories.

The public has a much stronger take on the game total, where 74% of O/U handle is on over 151.5.

Xavier vs Texas Prediction

• Texas Longhorns +2.5 (+100)

There’s just something awfully enticing to me to start wagering on the March Madness and have a plus sign in front of a bet, particularly when it’s a number against the spread. Texas provides that, as they’re +2.5 in this one.

Even the public has backed the Longhorns, and they’ve taken it a step further with 55% of wagers on them to win outright on the moneyline.

I’m not quite as confident as that, particularly with Xavier perfect when they’re a favorite. However, a slight upset that gives you +2.5 to cover in a First Four game? Sign me up. In the March Madness champion odds, neither team is considered a threat to go very far, which is understandable, given that they’re even having to participate in a First Four game to begin with. Both squads are pretty evenly matched, with Texas a bit better offensively, and Xavier considerably stronger defensively.

Xavier vs Texas Stats

Xavier is led by Zach Freemantle, who paces the team, averaging the most points per game (17.3) and rebounds per outing (7.1). Freemantle has scored double digit points in all 29 affairs on the campaign, racking up between 23 and 25 points for three straight outings until his final duel, where he managed just 15 in Xavier’s 89-87 loss to Marquette in the Big East quarterfinal last Thursday.

The Longhorns offence runs through freshman Tre Johnson, as he’s putting up nearly 20 points per game (19.8), which is significantly more than the second player on the team in Arthur Kaluma (12.4)

Texas is battle tested, having already competed in three SEC Tournament games, one that saw them emerge victorious 79-72 over Vanderbilt, then 94-89 in double OT against Texas A&M.

Xavier comes in with eight wins in their last ten, compared to a 4-6 record for Texas in that span. I don’t feel confident enough going all-in with Texas at +140 on they moneyline, but to cover the 2.5 spread at +100 is still good enough value to me.

Be sure to check out SBD’s other March Madness content::

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• The Public’s Pick for Every March Madness Game
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• Early March Madness Bets to Target – Three First-Round Underdogs Showing Value
• Odds to Reach Final Four for All 68 Teams in 2025 NCAA Tournament
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