First Four Picks, Predictions & Odds for St Francis (PA) vs Alabama State – See My +600 Best Bet

• St Francis (PA) and Alabama State meet in the First Four in Dayton on Tuesday night
• St Francis is the only team in the NCAA Tournament that’s under .500 this season
• Below, see the St Francis vs Alabama State odds, picks, and predictions for March 18

The 2025 NCAA Tournament officially gets underway at 6:40 pm ET tonight when the #16 St Francis (PA) Red Flash (16-17, ATS) face the #16 Alabama State Hornets (19-15) at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, in First Four action. The Hornets are slight betting favorites in the first March Madness game of the year.

St Francis (PA) vs Alabama State Odds

The Hornets are listed as 3.5-point neutral-court favorites on Tuesday night and -180 on the moneyline in the latest college basketball odds. The Red Flash come back at +152, while the game total is sitting at 138.5 with -110 odds both ways.act

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The winner of this game will advance to play #1 Auburn in the South Region of the March Madness bracket. (If you haven’t already, download SBD’s printable March Madness bracket to make your picks right up to the title game.)

How Bad Is St Francis (PA)?

St Francis is not just the lowest-rated KenPom team in the tournament this year (311th), it’s the lowest-rated team to make March Madness since 2019, when NC Central was #316.

The Red Flash finished 8-8 in conference play in the Northeast, the second-worst of the 31 conferences across the nation.

They made an unlikely run to the NE Tournament title by beating #322 Wagner (58-55), #285 LIU (71-68), and #183 Central Connecticut (46-43), the regular-season champs who had already pounded St Francis twice this season.

In reality, the Red Flash got exceptionally lucky in the Northeast Tournament. Central Connecticut – which put up 74 and 83 on St Francis in the regular season – shot just 35.9% from the field in the title game. The Blue Devils were 3-of-17 from beyond the arc (17.6%) despite connecting at a respectable 32.9% clip for the season as a whole.

I can give some credit to the St Francis defense, but it was also a brutal off night for their opponent. The Red Flash finished -5 on the glass and had just one block the entire game.

St Francis (PA) vs Alabama State Ratings

In the table above, “KenPom Off.” stands for offensive efficiency rating at KenPom, “KenPom Def/” stands for defensive efficiency rating, and “SOS” stands for strength-of-schedule.

But Is Alabama State Really Any Better Than St Francis?

The Hornets rate a little higher in the overall analytics than the Red Flash, but the difference is negligible. KenPom projects a two-point Alabama State win (72-70), while Torvik has it at a single point (71-70), and Haslam (which does decimals) has the difference between the teams at less than a point (71.43 – 70.59).

Yes, Alabama State had a considerably better conference record (12-6) but the SWAC was the only conference in the nation that rated lower than the Northeast, which is evidenced by the fact that St Francis wound up with a significantly tougher strength-of-schedule than Alabama State (313th vs 355th).

Both teams have somewhat impressive non-conference wins on their resumes. St Francis beat #222 Campbell (65-64) in a true-road game on November 10. The Hornets beat both #156 Omaha (85-67 neutral) and #166 Lamar (77-75) in Akron in late November.

The Hornets are on a six-game overall win streak. Like St Francis, they won a trio of close games in their conference tournament: 84-79 vs #280 Texas Southern, 64-62 vs #319 Grambling, and 60-56 vs #249 Jackson State.

But Alabama State has also lost two games to teams that rate lower than St Francis this season: 67-57 at #325 Alcorn State and 77-67 at home to #319 Grambling.

The Public’s Pick for St Francis (PA) vs Alabama State

On the moneyline, there is no confusion over which team the public is backing the first game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The St Francis vs Alabama State public betting splits show 76% of moneyline handle on the Hornets to win straight-up as -180 favorites. They are also getting a somewhat-ridiculous 93% of moneyline tickets, though that’s an indication that the 7% of ML bets that are on the Red Flash are bigger, on average, than the bets on Alabama State.

Against the spread, the public is much more divided, in fact, almost evenly divided. As of 4:47 pm ET, Alabama State was getting 51% of ATS handle while St Francis was getting the other 49%.

The public’s favorite play on this game run counter to my own (more on that below): a massive 86% of game-total handle is currently on the over roughly two hours from tip-off.

Check back with SBD’s March Madness betting splits page to see up-to-the-minute changes in those numbers.

Alabama State vs St Francis (PA) Prediction

Alabama State has undeniably better wins than the Red Flash and has only lost one of its last 11 games. They’re a little more talented on offense and playing their best basketball of the season.

St Francis scraped through the Northeast Tournament despite failing to hit 60 twice and being held to just 48 in the title game. Alabama State isn’t so much better than the Hornets feel inevitable, but I’m also not keen to bet the Red Flash at +152 on the moneyline.

Instead, I’m targeting the under. Both defenses have been excellent of late and neither side plays at a pace that you would call uptempo. Alabama State’s won its last two games while staying in the 60s and two of St Francis’ NE Tournament games failed to crack 115.

The analytics say this game should hit 140, but it’s clear that both teams are playing a slightly different, less aggressive style with their seasons on the line each time out.

If that persists, this game could stay under by a lot. This is a prime spot to take a big swing at a huge number.

St Francis vs Alabama State pick: First half under 54.5 (+600) at bet365