Nuggets vs Warriors Odds, Predictions & Props to Bet (March 17)

• The Golden State Warriors are 4-point favorites over the Denver Nuggets tonight
• Golden State is 14-2 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup
• See my Nuggets vs Warriors odds, predictions, and props to bet, below

A potential first round playoff series is on deck tonight as the Denver Nuggets (43-25, 20-14 home) visit the Golden State Warriors (29-28, 21-13 home). Golden State is scorching hot at the moment, and I’m betting they continue the trend. Online sportsbooks agree, siding with the Warriors in the latest NBA odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10pm PT / 10:10pm ET at the Chase Center, in San Francisco, CA, with ESPN providing the coverage.

Nuggets vs Warriors Odds

Golden State is currently favored by 4-points and -175 on the moneyline. The total sits at 236.5, with Denver coming back as +145 moneyline dogs. Per the NBA public betting trends, the spread has moved 1.5 points towards the Nuggets since opening odds were released, but that won’t affect my decision to back the Dubs.

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Nuggets vs Warriors Predictions

• Golden State Warriors -4 (-115) at DraftKings

I’m predicting a Warriors win and cover for multiple reasons. For starters, the efficiency they’ve played at since acquiring Jimmy Butler is through the roof. Golden State is 14-2 with Butler in the lineup, ranking second in Net rating over that stretch. They’ve been the fifth best offense since he joined, and the second best defense.

Butler’s tenacity at the defensive end has clearly motivated his teammates. Golden State has allowed 104 points or less in seven of their past 15 games. In the month prior to Butler’s arrival, they were 25th in defensive rating.

Jimmy Buckets hasn’t been a huge offensive star every game, but he hasn’t had to be. His mere presence opens up more space for Steph Curry, who’s thriving lately. Curry has 28+ points in six of his last nine starts, including multiple 40+ point nights.

Another reason I’m backing the Warriors, or fading Denver, is the Nuggets sketchy injury report. Four of Denver’s five starters are on tonight’s injury report. That includes NBA MVP odds candidate Nikoka Jokic, but given players props are only available for him and Curry, we can expect him to play.

The Nuggets are fresh off an embarassing loss to the lowly Wizards. Believe it or not, that’s the second time they’ve fallen to Washington this season. Denver is one of the best offensive teams in the league, thanks to Jokic, but defensively they’re a mess. They enter play ranked 22nd in defensive rating, and are 27th in that category over the last 10 games. Not surprisingly, they’re 2-8 against the spread over that stretch.

Recent form, and injury luck on Golden State’s side tonight. Throw in ridiculous efficiency with Butler and home-court advantage, and I’ll happily lay 4-points with them.

DEN vs Golden State Player Props

NBA props from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 17.

• DEN vs GS Player Prop pick: Steph Curry Over 6.5 Assists (+120) at DraftKings

As mentioned, the props market is bare as of Monday afternoon as the injury news gets sorted out. We’re left with only Jokic and Curry to choose from, and my best player prop bet to target is over 6.5 assists for Steph at +120 odds.

Yes, it’s a number that Curry has struggled to hit lately. He’s failed in five straight, but prior to that he had 9+ assists on three straight occasions. There’s a reasonable explanation for his failures. Nearly all of those games were blowouts, where he saw reduced minutes. As a 4-point favorite, we can expect a full compliment of minutes for Steph tonight.

He’s faced the Nuggets once this season, and dished out 11 assists. Denver allows on average 10 dimes to enemy point guards per night, the fourth most in the NBA.