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Opening Wisconsin vs Michigan Odds & Early Picks for Big Ten Tournament Final

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Published:


Wisconsin Badgers guard John Tonje smiling
Wisconsin Badgers guard John Tonje (9) smiles while guarding Michigan State Spartans guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) on Saturday, March 15, 2025, in a semifinals game at the 2025 TIAA Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament between the Michigan State Spartans and the Wisconsin Badgers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Wisconsin Badgers defeated the Michigan State Spartans, 77-74.
  • The Wisconsin Badgers face the Michigan Wolverines in the 2025 Big Ten Tournament title game on Sunday, March 16
  • Michigan took a 67-64 true-road win at the Badgers in early December
  • See the opening Wisconsin vs Michigan odds and plus picks and early lines to target

The Wisconsin Badgers (26-8, 13-7 Big Ten, 21-12 ATS) will face the Michigan Wolverines (23-9, 14-6 Big Ten, 15-18 ATS) in the Big Ten Tournament title game on Sunday at 3:30 pm ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Though the Wolverines come in red-hot, the equally-scalding Badgers are listed as slight favorites in the opening Big Ten Tournament title game odds.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Odds

Bet TypeWisconsinMichigan
Spread-2.5 (-110)+2.5 (-110)
Moneyline-155+130
TotalO 150.5 (-110)U 150.5 (-110)

The Big Ten title game has opened with Wisconsin as a 2.5-point favorite and -155 on the moneyline. The Wolverines are +130 underdogs to win the Big Ten Tournament title.

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Odds as of March 15 at DraftKings. Download the best March Madness betting apps ahead of Selection Sunday.

The game total is sitting at 150.5. Wisconsin is 20-14 O/U this season, while Michigan is 17-15.

Badgers’ Road to the Big Ten Tournament Final

As the #5 seed, Wisconsin just missed out on a double-bye and had to face #13 Northwestern in the second round on Thursday. The Badgers breezed past NU 70-63 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score suggests. John Tonje (19.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.8 APG) led the way with 18 points and seven rebounds.

YouTube video

That was the first of three outstanding performances from the 6’5 senior guard. In the quarterfinals, Tonje poured in a game-high 26 points with nine rebounds and four dimes in an 86-70 rout of UCLA. He was even better in the semis against Michigan State, the regular-season champs who had won eight straight games. Tonje scored 32 points and added seven rebounds and two assists in a razor-tight 77-74 win over the Spartans.

WISC vs MICH KenPom Ratings

WISCSTATMICH
12th (+26.48)Net Rating27th (+21.63)
11th (123.3)Off. Rating42nd (116.5)
32nd (96.9)Def. Rating16th (94.9)
149th (67.8)Tempo64th (69.5)

Michigan’s Path to the Big Ten Tournament Title Game

The Wolverines, the #3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, received a double-bye to the quarterfinals, where they were matchup up against a dangerous Purdue team. UM took down the Boilermakers for the second time this season. The 86-68 win was arguably Michigan’s most-complete game of the season; Dusty May’s team never trailed and turned a four-point halftime lead into a double-digit margin six minutes into the second half.

YouTube video

Seven-foot junior center Danny Wolf (13.0 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 3.8 APG) dazzled, scoring a team-high 18 points with 11 rebounds and six assists.

In the semifinals, the Wolverines won an instant classic against the #2 Maryland Terrapins (81-80). Wolf was again the catalyst, scoring 21 points and grabbing a game-high 14 rebounds. Fellow seven-footer Vladislav Goldin (16.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.2 APG) added a team-high 25 points and ten boards as the Wolverines absolutely dominated the post.

Tre Donaldson (11.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 4.0 APG) scored the game-winning bucket with 0.1 on the clock, seconds after a pair of Derik Queen free throws put the Terps up one.

Early Wisconsin vs Michigan Picks

The Badgers have proven to be a streaky team this year. They started the year 8-0 before losing three straight. But the losing streak was followed by a seven-game win streak and a five-game win streak in Big Ten play. After splitting their final six regular-season games, the Badgers appear to be on another tear. Tonje has been the best player in the tournament so far.

Wisconsin is also one of the few teams that has the size to matchup with Michigan’s twin seven-footers in the post, Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, who have propelled UM’s run through the tournament. Seven-foot Steven Crowl (9.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.5 APG) and 6’11 Nolan Winter (9.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG) have Wisconsin sitting a solid 47th in DREB% and 39th in two-point defense (47.0%).

Pick: Wisconsin -2.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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