Arizona vs Texas Tech Odds & Predictions (Big 12 Semifinals)

• Texas Tech is a 2.5-point favorite over Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals
• The Wildcats and Red Raiders split their regular season series, with each team winning at home
• See my Arizona vs Texas Tech odds, prediction and pick below

The Big 12 Tournament continues on Friday with an anticipated semifinal showdown between the 3rd-seeded Arizona Wildcats (21-11, 14-6 Big 12) and 2nd-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders (25-7, 15-5 Big 12).

Both teams earned double-byes into the quarterfinals where they survived close battles. Arizona outlasted Kansas 88-77, while Texas Tech narrowly edged Baylor 76-74. Now they face off for a spot in Saturday’s championship game.

Tip-off from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is slated for 6:30pm MT on ESPN2.

Arizona vs Texas Tech Odds

The Red Raiders are currently 2.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 152.5 points. Texas Tech is -140 on the moneyline while Arizona comes back at +115 according to the college basketball odds.

While Texas Tech is favored, the Wildcats have pulled off upsets in two of their last three games, beating the spread as 3-point underdogs versus Kansas yesterday and 6-point dogs at Utah the previous week.

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Odds as of March 14 at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code and browse March Madness betting apps ahead of Selection Sunday.

Arizona vs Texas Tech Prediction (Big 12 Semifinal)

The Wildcats and Red Raiders are no strangers, having faced off twice during Big 12 play. Each team held serve on their home court with Texas Tech winning 70-54 in Lubbock back in January before Arizona flipped the script in an 82-73 triumph in Tucson a few weeks later.

The big difference between those two matchups was offensive efficiency. The Wildcats shot a miserable 31% and went 3-of-18 from deep in the first meeting compared to 52% overall and 4-of-13 from three in the rematch.

Pace and tempo will be key factors in determining which team dictates the style of play. According to KenPom, Arizona ranks 56th in adjusted tempo compared to 280th for the more methodical Red Raiders. The Cats used a 25-16 fast break edge to speed up Texas Tech in Tucson. Contrarily, TTU slowed things down in Lubbock, yielding just three Wildcat fast break points.

Rebounding also swung the regular season series with Arizona dominating the glass by 13 at home after getting beat on the boards by 16 in the first meeting.

Arizona vs Texas Tech KenPom Comparison

The Red Raiders have a slight edge in KenPom’s overall efficiency ratings, ranking 7th compared to 12th for the Wildcats. Both teams excel offensively with TTU ranking 6th and UA 13th in adjusted efficiency. The Cats actually grade out better in effective field goal percentage (53.5%, 35th) than the Raiders (51.8%, 107th). However, Texas Tech makes up for it by taking care of the ball, posting the 6th lowest turnover rate in the nation.

Defensively, these teams are evenly matched, ranking 30th and 32nd in adjusted efficiency. TTU is elite at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 29.5% (7th) from distance. That could pose problems for an Arizona offense that has struggled from deep lately, shooting under 31% in three of its last four games.

With such a tight matchup on paper, the game may come down to which team’s stars shine brightest. Texas Tech boasts the Big 12 Player of the Year in JT Toppin, who went off for 41 points and 29 rebounds in the two regular-season meetings. Meanwhile, Arizona will need more efficiency from Caleb Love, who went a combined 7-for-28 versus TTU.

Ultimately, I give a slight edge to the Red Raiders based on their ability to control tempo and limit the Wildcats in transition. I expect a relatively low-scoring, grind-it-out type of game that stays under the total. The neutral court should help Arizona’s offense perform better than it did in Lubbock, but I still don’t think they have enough to snap TTU’s four-game win streak. I’m laying the short number with the favorite.

Arizona vs TTU Pick

• Texas Tech -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM