Navy vs American Prediction, Pick & Odds – Patriot League Championship

• American is a 2.5-point home favorite over Navy in Wednesday’s Patriot League Championship game
• The 5th-seeded Midshipmen are looking to pull off another upset after knocking off top-seeded Bucknell
• Read on for my Navy vs American prediction and betting breakdown

The Patriot League will crown a champion on Wednesday as the 5th-seeded Navy Midshipmen (15-18, 10-8 Patriot) battle the 2nd-seeded American Eagles (21-12, 13-5 Patriot). The winner punches their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

Navy is fresh off a stunning 83-77 upset over top-seeded Bucknell in the semifinals, while American held off a pesky Colgate squad 72-62.

Tip-off for this win-or-go-home matchup is set for 7 p.m. ET at Bender Arena in Washington, D.C. CBS Sports Network will televise the action.

Navy vs American Odds

The Eagles are currently 2.5-point home favorites with the total set at 132.5 points. On the moneyline, American is listed at -155 odds, meaning you’d need to risk $155 to win $100.

The Midshipmen are +130 underdogs – a $100 bet would net you $130 if they pull off the upset. The implied probability for American winning is 60.8%, while a Navy upset is given a 43.5% implied chance of occuring.

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Odds current as of March 12 at DraftKings. See our full list of the DraftKings legal states.

Navy vs American Prediction (Patriot League Championship)

Don’t let Navy’s 15-18 record fool you – this team is playing its best basketball of the season at the perfect time. The Midshipmen have won three straight games, including impressive victories over higher seeds Boston University and Bucknell. Junior guard Austin Benigni has been the catalyst, averaging 21.3 points over his last 10 games while shooting 39.1% from the field.

Meanwhile, American boasts a lethal 14-1 record at Bender Arena this season. The Eagles are led by senior forward Matt Rogers, who paces the team in both scoring (16.8 ppg) and rebounding (5.5 RPG).

American’s calling card is its stingy defense, which ranks 59th in the nation allowing just 67.7 points per game. In two regular season meetings with Navy, the Eagles earned a split, with each team winning on its home floor.

Navy vs American KenPom Stats

According to KenPom, these two teams are pretty evenly matched. American has a slight edge in overall ranking and defensive efficiency, while Navy plays at a significantly faster adjusted tempo. The Midshipmen will look to speed up the pace and turn this into a track meet. On the other side, expect the Eagles to try to ugly things up and turn it into a grind-it-out defensive battle.

In a game that could go either way, I’ll side with American’s considerable home-court advantage. The Eagles are a perfect 3-0 against the spread at Bender Arena in their last three lined games. They are also more well rested playing a third straight home game, while Navy will be playing their third consecutive road contest.

Navy vs American Pick

• American -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings

For my Navy vs American pick, I believe the Eagles’ stifling defense and strong home-court advantage will be too much for the Midshipmen to overcome. American has held its last five opponents under 70 points, going 4-1 in those contests. The Eagles should be able to control the tempo and prevent Navy from getting out in transition.

Give me American -2.5 as my best bet. The Midshipmen have had an impressive run to get here, but I think they’ll fall just short of completing the Cinderella story. Back the Eagles to cut down the nets on their home floor and punch their ticket to the Big Dance for the first time since 2009.

How the Public is Betting Navy vs American Title Game

The betting public is heavily backing American on the moneyline, with the Eagles drawing a lopsided 89% of tickets and 83% of handle as of 3:30 pm ET. However, bettors are taking a different approach with the spread – Navy is receiving 67% of spread bets and 70% of the money at the current 2.5-point line.

For the total, there’s significant public sentiment toward the over, with 72% of tickets and 76% of handle coming in on over 132.5 points. This suggests bettors expect Navy’s significantly faster tempo (202nd vs American’s 349th in adjusted pace) to push this game past the posted total.

While our college basketball public betting trends showed 53% of spread bets backing Navy earlier, that number has increased substantially as we approach tip-off.