Delaware vs UNC Wilmington Odds, Prediction and Pick For CAA Title Game
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- UNC Wilmington is an 8.5-point favorite over Delaware in the CAA Championship Final tonight
- The Blue Hens are the first 12th seed to ever make the CAA title game
- See my Delaware vs UNC Wilmington odds, prediction and pick, below
How’s this for a Cinderella story. The Delaware Blue Hens (16-19, 5-13 CAA), the 12th seed in the CAA Tournament, are through to the Championship Final. They’ll take on the 2nd seed UNC Wilmington Seahawks (26-7, 14-4 CAA) tonight, with a spot in the NCAA Tournament on the line. Delaware has pulled off three consecutive upsets, but online sportsbooks aren’t projecting a fourth in the latest college basketball odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 7pm ET at the CareFree Center, in Washington, DC, with CBSSN providing the broadcast coverage.
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington Odds
UNC Wilmington is currently an 8.5-point favorite, in a contest with a total of 148.5. The Blue Hens have beaten the spread in three straight tournament games per the college basketball public betting trends, while the Seahawks have covered in four of five overall. UNC Wilmington is listed at -410 on the moneyline, with Delaware coming back as +320 underdogs.
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington Prediction (CAA Title Game)
As enjoyable as this Blue Hens ride has been, I’m betting against it continuing. Delaware opened the tournament with a victory over 13th seed Stony Brook, before blowing out 5th seed Campbell the following day. Their next victim was 4th seed William & Mary in another lopsided win, and they reached the final by knocking off top-seed Towson last night. That’s four games in four days, with a fifth one coming tonight. At some point, fatigue is going to set in.
What makes their run so special is just how unexpected it is. The Blue Hens dropped 11 of their last 12 conference games in the regular season. They were the worst scoring defense in the CAA, and bottom-five in turnovers and rebounding. All five starters scored in double-figures in Monday’s 82-72 semifinal win, paving the way for some history. Delaware is the first ever CAA team seeded 12th or worse to reach the conference championship final.
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington Offensive Ranks
In order for the Blue Hens magical run to continue, their offense must remain hyper efficient. They’ve averaged 85 points per game so far in the conference tournament, and ranked 35th this season in effective field goal percentage.
That’s easier said than done versus the Seahawks. UNC Wilmington was top-four in the conference in defensive rating, and neutralized the Delaware offense twice in the regular season. The Seahawks ended conference play winning 12 of their final 14 games. Their defense has shown up in both tournament contests so far, holding each opponent below 67 points.
At the other end of the floor, UNC Wilmington is the best offense in the CAA. They led the conference in scoring, and were top-three in shooting percentage, assists and rebounding. They averaged 83 points per game in two matchups versus the Blue Hens, winning by 10 and 30 points respectively. Their roster is loaded with upper classmen, and feature five players who average at least 9 points per outing. They’re one win away from their first appearance in the March Madness odds since 2017, and I predict they get the job done tonight.
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington Pick
- UNC Wilmington -8.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Which makes my best bet UNC Wilmington -8.5. It’s a spread they covered in both matchups versus the Blue Hens this year, and that was when Delaware was fresh. Five games in five nights is a grueling test for anyone, and that’s amplified when each outing is a must win.
The Seahawks will be much fresher, after having to play just twice in the tournament so far. The Blue Hens rely far too heavily on their offense, and we can expect them to tighten up with so much on the line. UNC Wilmington already held them below 45% shooting in both meetings, and the additional fatigue Delaware is dealing with will hurt them offensively. The clock strikes midnight on every Cinderella run eventually, and tonight’s the night Delaware’s fairytale ends.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
