San Francisco vs Gonzaga Odds, Player Props & Picks (March 10)

• The Gonzaga Bulldogs are big favorites over the San Francisco Dons in the WCC Tournament semifinals on Monday
• The Bulldogs dominated both regular-season meetings between the teams, winning by 11 at home and 20 on the road
• See my San Francisco vs Gonzaga predictions and picks, plus the full slate of odds and player props for tonight’s game in Nevada

The penultimate game of the 2025 WCC Tournament goes tonight when the #3 San Francisco Dons (24-8, 13-5 WCC, 16-14-1 ATS) meet the #2 Gonzaga Bulldogs (23-8, 14-4 WCC, 13-18 ATS) in the second semifinal at Orleans Arena in Paradise, Nevada, at 8:30 pm PT/11:30 pm ET. The victory will face the winner of Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s in Tuesday’s championship game, and oddsmakers very much expect that to be conference-powerhouse Gonzaga. Mark Few’s Zags, who have won the tournament 10 of the last 12 seasons, are double-digit chalk in Monday’s college basketball odds.

San Francisco vs Gonzaga Odds

The Zags are laying 14.5 points to the Dons and have been set as -1430 favorites on the moneyline. San Francisco is currently a +775 underdog, giving the Dons just an 11.43% implied win probability.

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The over/under is sitting at 153.5, which is slightly below the 154-point KenPom projection. It’s also way under the totals from the two regular-season games between the teams (170 and 165).

Public’s Gonzaga vs San Francisco Picks

According to the latest college basketball public betting splits, the public loves Gonzaga to win, putting 63% of moneyline handle on the Bulldogs on a massive 97% of ML tickets. But when it comes to the spread, it’s the Dons that are getting the majority of the money. As of 7:09 pm ET, San Francisco was sitting at 62% of ATS handle and 62% of ATS wagers as 14.5-point underdogs.

With respect to the total, the public is betting is on the under (70% of O/U handle) but the game total has also increased from 155.5 to as high as 156.6 over the course of the day.

The Dons advanced to the semifinals with an 86-75 victory over #6 Washington State last night as 5.5-point favorites. Sophomore guard Ryan Beasley had a career night, dropping 29 points on 10-of-15 shooting (4-of-8 from three) along with four rebounds and three assists. Four of the San Francisco starters finished in double-figures while, as a team, they absolutely obliterated the Cougars on the glass, 49-25, including 21-5 on the offensive end.

As the #2 seed, Gonzaga received a bye straight to the semifinals. As such, the Zags have had a nine-day layoff since ending their regular season with a 95-75 rout of these same Dons. Gonzaga also earned an 88-77 win over San Francisco at the Kennel on Feb. 13.

SF vs GONZ Player Props

Gonzaga/San Francisco player props from bet365 on March. Claim the current bet365 promo code before wagering on the 2025 WCC Tournament.

Only one Don is listed in tonight’s player props, leading scorer Malik Thomas (19.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.0 APG), who has the highest point total of the night at 19.5. Graham Ike (17.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.4 APG) leads the Zags players at 17.5 and also has the highest rebound total at 8.5. Ryan Nembhard (10.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 10.0 APG), who leads the entire nation in dimes, has an assist prop of 9.5 with the over slightly favored at -130.

One thing that’s apparent from the two regular-season meetings is that Nembhard loves playing against the Dons. He dished out 16 dimes in the road win last week, and piled up 18 points and 13 assists when they met in Spokane three weeks prior.

San Francisco vs Gonzaga Picks

I like the way the Zags are constructed, and I think they’ve underperformed this season based on their sheer level of talent. But this is a massive spread against a good San Francisco group. The Dons were the only team to beat Saint Mary’s in WCC play (65-64 home) and they also own a win over Boise State (84-73 home).

They aren’t being talked about as a bubble team by any pundits at this point, so this is really a do-or-die game for the Dons, and I expect a considerably better effort than last week’s game with the Bulldogs.

I’m also targeting the over on Nembhard’s assist total, though. The Gonzaga point guard has absolutely shredded an ordinarily-pretty-good San Francisco defense both times they’ve played. And I expect the country’s assist leader to keep it up in the biggest game of the season to date.

San Francisco vs Gonzaga Predictions:

• San Francisco +14.5 (-110)
• Nembhard over 9.5 assists (-130)
• Over 153.5 (-110)

My trio of picks for tonight’s San Francisco/Gonzaga matchup start with the Dons cover as 14.5-point neutral-court underdogs. I’m also betting the over on 153.5, largely based on the two previous meetings between the teams sailing over that total. My last pick is Gonzaga point guard Andrew Nembhard, who leads Division I in assists per game, averaging exactly 10, to go over 9.5 against San Francisco for the third straight game.

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 34-22 (+8.52 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.