Arnold Palmer Odds, Picks & Best Bets for Sunday’s Fourth Round

• Collin Morikawa is a +105 favorite to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational entering Sunday’s final round
• Morikawa carded a 5-under par round of 67 on Saturday to take a one-stroke lead over Russell Henley
• See the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational live odds, and best picks before the Final Round

It’s shaping up to be a nail-biting finish at the PGA Tour’s fourth Signature Event of 2025. Collin Morikawa takes a one-shot lead over Russell Henley into the fourth round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, seeking his first victory since the 2023 Zozo Championship. Six golfers enter play on Sunday within five shots of the lead, and I’m still not ready to count out the top-two players in the world. World #1 Scottie Scheffler will begin eight shots back, while #2 Rory McIlroy is seven shots behind Morikawa.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Live Odds

Morikawa is a +105 favorite to win the API, followed by Henley at +275. Corey Conners checks in next with +550 odds, while former champ Jason Day has a +900 price tag.

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Nasty Weather Looming Brings Longshots Into Play

No disrespect to Morikawa, but he’s not cracking my list of best bets. Saturday’s conditions brought sunshine and light winds to Bay Hill Club and Lounge, but Sunday will be a different story.

Ideal scoring conditions in Round 3 paved the way for Morikawa to shine, and he obliged. The 28-year-old carded six birdies and a bogey en route to a 5-under par round of 67, leading the field in strokes gained approach along the way.

The two-time Major champ is one of the best ball strikers in the world, and is tops in that category this week, along with strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s put together multiple top-two finishes in his last five starts, but he hasn’t tasted victory since late 2023.

With so many quality names within striking distance, it’s hard to back Morikawa at even money. He’s not a ruthless closer like Scheffler or McIlroy, and the nasty weather on deck is only going to add more variance to the leaderboard.

Sunday’s forecast is calling for cold temperatures, with winds escalating in the afternoon. That can place a larger emphasis on scrambling and putting, which are not Morikawa’s forte. Morikawa loses strokes to the field on average when putting on Bermuda services like the ones at Bay Hill, and has lost strokes around the greens in back-to-back tournaments entering this week.

Not only am I skipping Morikawa on my betting card, I’m fading the entire top-six. You can poke holes in each of those golfers as well, and I see plenty of value further down the board.

Arnold Palmer Picks & Best Bets for Final Round

1. Rory McIlroy +5000: Let’s start with McIlroy. He’s been a little off this week with his irons, but he’s been a net positive in every other major statistical category. McIlroy has a history of storming the field on Sunday at the API, shooting an 8-under, 64 in 2018 to steal the title. He gained 10 strokes putting that week on the field, the most of his entire career. If the flat stick gets hot on Sunday look out.
2. Shane Lowry +6500: Shane Lowry fell back to the pack on Saturday thanks to a pair of sloppy double bogeys, but he’s never someone you want to bet when the weather’s perfect. The Irishman is a superb wind player, who thrives in tough conditions. He’s a previous Open Champion and finished third here last year. For the week, he ranks sixth in iron play and ninth in putting, which should serve him well in the Final Round.
3. Scottie Scheffler +7500: I pulled the trigger on Scottie at +12000 prior to him playing the 18th on Saturday, but he’s still a value at this number. Scheffler has stormed the pack many times in his career, and despite his mediocre standing so far this week, the stats point to big things coming. The two-time Major champ is tops in strokes gained off the tee, fifth in strokes gained tee-to-green, and seventh in scrambling. He’s won this event twice in the last three years, and no one will be surprised if he makes a big move on Sunday.