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Nuggets vs Thunder Picks, Prediction & Props to Target (March 9)

Eric Rosales

By Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Published:


Shai Gilgeous-Alexander walking off court
Mar 5, 2025; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
  • The OKC Thunder are 6.5point favorites when they host the Denver Nuggets Sunday
  • OKC has won six games in a row
  • See the Thunder vs Nuggets predictions, player props, and odds on March 9

It’s a battle of the two leading candidates in the NBA MVP odds when the OKC Thunder (52-11, 27-4 home) host the Denver Nuggets (41-22, 19-13 away). The Thunder, behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is looking for a seventh straight win. Denver, meanwhile, is coming off a historic Nikola Jokic triple-double and seeking their third straight win.

The West-leading Thunder are is the betting favorites in the NBA odds when this one tips off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City at 1pm ET, with ABC/ESPN+ carrying the broadcast.

Nuggets vs Thunder Odds

Bet TypeDenver NuggetsOklahoma City Thunder
Spread+6.5 (-108)-6.5 (-112)
Moneyline+225-255
TotalO 243 (-110)U 243 (-110)

Denver is a 6.5-point road underdog, and a distant +225 on the moneyline. The total comes in at 243 points, with these two teams climbing Over that total in the last head-to-head meeting.

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Odds as of March 9 at FanDuel. Be sure to check out the best FanDuel promo code before placing a bet on any NBA game on Sunday.

Denver star Nikola Jokic (ankle) is listed as probable for Sunday, as is forward Aaron Gordon (ankle). There aren’t any regular Thunder players sitting this one out.

DEN vs OKC Player Props

PlayerPointsReboundsAssistsThree-Pointers Made
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)32.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)4.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)6.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -166)
Nikola Jokic (DEN)27.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)12.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)10.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Jalen Williams (OKC)20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)5.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145)1.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114)
Jamal Murray (DEN)19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)3.5 (Ov +124 | Un -160)5.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)2.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Michael Porter Jr. (DEN)16.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)6.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)OFF2.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)
Chet Holmgren (OKC)14.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)7.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)OFF1.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145)
Christian Braun (DEN)14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)4.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110)2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)0.5 (Ov -220 | Un +170)
Aaron Gordon (DEN)13.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)4.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)1.5 (Ov +130 | Un -166)
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC)9.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)9.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)3.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145)OFF
Luguentz Dort (OKC)9.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)3.5 (Ov +120 | Un -154)OFF2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -188)

NBA player props from DraftKings on March 9.

The line that sticks out most is Jokic’s, with a triple-double prop line of 27.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 10.5 assists.

Those numbers have to be up there after Jokic went nuclear in a 149-141 OT win over the Phoenix Suns, going for 31 points, 21 rebounds and 22 assists. He’s the only member of the 30-20-20 club.

SGA has the highest scoring total of any team Sunday at 32.5 points. He’s coming off a 41-point outing in Wednesday’s 120-103 win in Memphis. That follows a 51-point outburst the previous game against Houston.

Thunder big men Chet Holmgren (7.5) and Isaiah Hartenstein (9.5) have the highest rebound totals for OKC.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks

  • Nuggets vs Thunder pick: Over 243 points (-110)
  • Nuggets vs Thunder prop bet: Jokic Over 10.5 assists (-110)

Nuggets vs Thunder Predictions

The Thunder have been humming, as they drilled the Portland Trail Blazers 107-89, with many of their regulars out of the lineup due to injury, including Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace. SGA, who was also given a rest night.

Most of the band should be back together in a potential preview of the Western Conference Finals, the first of a 2-game set in OKC.

The Thunder have ripped off 15 wins in their last 17, and they’ve been lighting the league on fire, scoring an NBA-best 127.6 points per game, shooting 49.5% from the field and 39.7% from 3-point range.

One of the few teams that can keep the pace with the Thunder are the Nuggets, who are third in that same span, putting up 123.7 points per contest, shooting 51.5% from the field and 38.4% from downtown.

Denver will be looking for a third straight win, but they’ve been solid for over a month, going 13-3 over the last 16 games.

These teams have consistently gone Under the total, which had cashed in six straight before the last matchup, a 124-122 Denver win way back on November 6.

But it’s really difficult for me to take the Under with the way these offenses going right now. So long as Jokic is a go for this matchup, he should be able to keep Denver connected and pumping in points.

A rested SGA should be also be extra motivated to show out as he hunts down his first MVP crown.

Denver’s Over record is a healthy 24-16-0 ATS when coming off a win, with OKC a few notches below with a respectable 27-23-1 Over mark.

Eric Rosales
Eric Rosales

Sports Writer & Editor

Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.

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