Sabres vs Lightning Prediction, Odds & Starting Goalies (Thursday, Mar. 6)

• The Buffalo Sabres (24-30-6) visit the Tampa Bay Lightning (36-21-4) on Thursday, March 6, 2025
• The NHL odds have the Lightning as heavy home favorites at -250 on the moneyline, with the total set at 6.5 goals
• Read below for our Sabres vs Lightning prediction and best bets for Thursday night hockey at Amalie Arena

An Atlantic Division matchup is on tap Thursday night as the Buffalo Sabres (24-30-6) head to the Sunshine State to face the Tampa Bay Lightning (36-21-4) at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN.

The NHL betting odds have the Lightning as hefty -250 home favorites, with the Sabres at +200 on the moneyline. The total is set at 6.5 goals, juiced to the Under at -115.

Let’s dive into the matchup in our Sabres vs Lightning prediction and determine the best bets for Thursday night.

Sabres vs Lightning Prediction

While the Sabres have beaten the Lightning in their last two meetings, I’m backing Tampa Bay on the puck line (-1.5) at plus-money (+105) to win big at home. The Lightning enter on a six-game home winning streak in which their offense has caught fire, outscoring opponents 26-7.

Goaltending is also trending heavily in Tampa’s favor. Likely Lightning starter Andrei Vasilevskiy (29-16-3, 2.18 GAA, .923 SV%) has been on a tear, going 11-3-1 with a league-best .943 SV% since mid-January. Meanwhile, Sabres netminder Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (20-18-4, 3.06 GAA, .892 SV%) has struggled of late, allowing 10 goals on his last 62 shots faced.

The Lightning’s advantage grows when you look at the season-long numbers. Tampa ranks 5th in goals against (2.61) and 2nd in scoring (3.56), whereas Buffalo is 29th in goals against (3.45) while scoring the 12th-most (3.15). The Sabres are also just 9-16-3 on the road compared to the Bolts’ dominant 22-7-2 home record.

Nikita Kucherov (90 points in 58 games) is making a case for the Hart Trophy and has torched Buffalo for 11 points in their last eight meetings. Look for him to keep rolling alongside linemates Brayden Point (64 points) and 2024 deadline acquisition Jake Guentzel (60 points). Brandon Hagel (68 points) provides a dangerous secondary threat.

The Sabres will likely be overmatched without any significant injuries reported for the Lightning. Even if Luukkonen stands on his head, I don’t think Buffalo will generate enough offense to keep up with Tampa’s firepower. The Lightning have won 28 of their 36 games this year by 2+ goals.

At an enticing +105 price, back the Lightning to make a statement at home and crush a reeling Sabres squad. Tampa is the far better team on paper and I expect that to translate onto the ice at Amalie Arena. Give me the Bolts to win big in a high-scoring affair.

• Thursday NHL Pick: Lightning Puck Line (+105 at BetMGM)

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Sabres vs Lightning Odds

The Lightning are listed as heavy home favorites at -250 on the moneyline, while the Sabres are +200 road underdogs. Tampa is +105 to cover the -1.5 puck line and win by 2+ goals, whereas Buffalo is -125 to stay within the +1.5 puck line in a loss or win outright.

The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the Over priced at -105 and the Under at -115. That indicates some lean toward a relatively high-scoring game, which makes sense given the Lightning’s offensive prowess and the Sabres’ defensive woes.

If you like the Lightning to win a one-goal game, you can get them at +320 to prevail by exactly one tally. The same wager for the Sabres comes back at a hefty +600 price.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of March 6, 2025. Claim the BetMGM promo code and wager on Sabres-Lightning.

Sabres vs Lightning Starting Goalies

Buffalo Sabres: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (20-18-4, 3.06 GAA, .892 SV%)
Luukkonen has scuffled in his last 3 outings, yielding 10 goals on his last 62 shots faced for an abysmal .839 SV%. The young Finn is a decent 8-6-2 on the road this season, however.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy (29-16-3, 2.18 GAA, .923 SV%)
Vasilevskiy has been in Vezina form, going 11-3-1 with an NHL-best .943 SV% since January 16. He’s allowed 2 goals or less in 10 of his last 13 starts overall. Vasilevskiy is a remarkable 21-5-2 with a 1.86 GAA on home ice in 2024-25.