Michigan St vs Iowa Odds, Predictions & Props to Target (March 6)
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- Michigan State is a 7.5-point road favorite versus the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight
- The Spartans can clinch the Big Ten regular season title with a win
- See the Michigan State vs Iowa odds, predictions and props for March 6, below
Talk about peaking at the right time. With just two games left in the regular season, Michigan State (24-5, 15-3 Big Ten) enters play tonight versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (15-14, 6-12 Big Ten) riding a five-game win streak. Online sportsbooks expect the Spartans success to continue, pegging them as road chalk in the college basketball odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 8pm ET from the Carver-Hawkeye Arena, in Iowa City, IA, with FS1 providing the broadcast coverage.
Michigan State vs Iowa Odds
Michigan State is currently favored by 7.5-points in a contest with a total of 152.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the spread has moved a point in the Spartans’ favor since opening odds were released, while the total has ticked up a point as well. Michigan State is laying -305 on the moneyline, with Iowa coming back as +245 underdogs.
The Spartans can clinch the Big Ten regular season title with a victory. They’re a top-ten contender in the March Madness odds, and each of their five wins during this streak have come against top-30 teams in KenPom’s rankings. A major reason for success has been their defense of the three-point line, as they’ve held opponents to 23% shooting from deep.
If the Hawkeyes want to stay competitive they’ll need to buck that trend. Iowa does a great job of spacing the floor and creating wide open looks, and I expect big things from Josh Dix tonight.
Michigan State vs Iowa Props
College basketball props from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 6.
- MSU vs IOWA Props Pick: Josh Dix 2+ Threes (-120)
The junior guard is the best pure shooter on the team. He’s hitting on 42% of his threes this season, averaging five attempts per game. Dix has made at least two threes in six of his past eight outings, and Michigan State’s three-point defense is bound for regression. The Spartans have yielded an average of only four made threes over their last three games. That’s three less per outing than their season long mark. Expect water to find its level tonight, with Dix leading the way for Iowa.
Michigan State vs Iowa Predictions
As for my best Michigan State vs Iowa best bet, I’m targeting over 152.5 points. I believe Iowa will find offensive success, despite back-to-back poor showings. The Hawkeyes have been held below 62 points in consecutive losses. They shot 42% and 36% in those defeats, well below their 49% season-long average. Iowa enters play averaging 82.2 points per game, the 14th best mark in the country.
Defensively, their metrics also favor a high-scoring game. The Hawkeyes are 328th in scoring defense, and 340th in opponent effective field goal percentage. They’re one of worst teams in the country defending shots inside the arc, and no Big Ten team owns the paint like the Spartans.
Michigan State runs the bulk of its offensive inside the three-point line, and is tops in the conference in offensive rebounding. That leads to plenty of second chance opportunities, reducing how efficient they need to be to put up a big number. Guards Jase Richardson and Jade Akins will carry the offensive load, while Jaxon Kohler will own the glass.
The Hawkeyes have allowed 80+ points 11 times since early December, and the last time they faced a ranked opponent they coughed up 101 points to Maryland.
- Michigan State vs Iowa Pick: Over 152.5 (-110)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
