Rockets vs Thunder Odds, Pick & Predictions (Monday, Mar. 3)

• The Houston Rockets are 11-point underdogs vs the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night
• OKC will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back
• See the Rockets vs Thunder predictions, player props, and odds on March 3

---

It’s a potential second-round playoff matchup Monday night when the Houston Rockets (37-23, 17-12 away) visit the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder (49-11, 25-4 home). The Thunder will be playing the second night of a back-to-back, but that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from establishing OKC as a heavy home favorite in Monday’s NBA odds. Action tips off from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm ET. NBA TV will carry the broadcast.

Rockets vs Thunder Odds

The Thunder are 11-point favorites against the spread and an extremely short -550 on the moneyline. The total comes it at 226.5, with -110 odds on either side of the number.

Odds as of March 3 at FanDuel. Be sure to check out the best FanDuel promo code before placing a bet on any NBA game on Monday night.

Houston’s got a lengthy injury list, though currently Fred Van Vleet (ankle) is the only one confirmed out. Amen Thompson (shoulder), Dillon Brooks (knee), Alperen Sengun (back), Steven Adams (ankle) and Tari Eason (leg) are all listed as questionable against the Thunder.

OKC did not have the services of Isaiah Joe (back) and Chet Holmgren (ankle) for Sunday’s 146-132 win over the Spurs. Their status is not yet known for Monday.

HOU vs OKC Player Props

NBA player props from FanDuel Sportsbook on March 3.

As of late Sunday night, the Rockets’ uncertainty of players had the books holding off of their player props. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the current favorite in the NBA MVP odds, leads all with the highest scoring total of 31.5 points.

Tough shot, @shaiglalex 🤯 pic.twitter.com/iq59LiZo0i

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) March 3, 2025

SGA’s streak of leading the team in scoring came to an end at nine games, only because Jalen Williams had a career night, dropping 41 points. Williams’ scoring prop is at 21.5 for Monday.

Gilgeous-Alexander also owns the highest assist prop at 5.5. Surprisingly, he’s only surpassed that total once in three games against the Rockets, though he has had at least eight dimes in six of his last eight, missing the other two by a single assist in each.

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks

• Rockets vs Thunder pick: Rockets +11 (-110)
• Rockets vs Thunder prop bet: Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 assists (-146)

Rockets vs Thunder Predictions

Since blowing that 25-point lead to lose to Minnesota in overtime, the Thunder have ripped off three straight wins, and blowing the tops off the defenses they’ve faced.

OKC is averaging a whopping 136.7 points per game over the last three, shooting 52.7% from the field and 41.1% from downtown.

A season-high 146 points scored tonight 📈 pic.twitter.com/xvbXa8d5LG

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) March 3, 2025

That scoring has overshadowed their lack of defense, as they have been allowing 124 points on this streak — a figure that would rank dead last in the NBA.

We’re going to see how they stack up to the Rockets, who just ended their short 3-game homestand with a 113-103 loss to the Sacramento Kings.

Houston brings a Top-4 defensive rating to the table, and currently rank fifth in scoring, allowing a light 108.8 points per game. Their field goal and 3-point defensive splits rank inside the Top 6.

This will be the fourth of five meetings this season, with the Thunder taking two of the first three head-to-head matchups.

Hustle Man gets paid 👏@TAR13ASON pic.twitter.com/7dzHL4IeiA

— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) March 2, 2025

Both Thunder wins have been blowout victories, each greater than the 11-point spread given for Monday. Houston’s win is sandwiched in between, the closest of the three, a 119-116 Rockets W.

There are a ton of things that OKC does well, but they’re an absolutely average cover team on the second night of a back-to-back, going 6-6-0 against the spread.

Houston, meanwhile, is second only to Cleveland as an away underdog, going 8-4-1 ATS. They’re also 8-5-0 ATS playing with a rest advantage.

The last defense that OKC played that was as good as Houston’s was Minnesota. The Thunder should still roll — they are a West-leading 25-4 at home — but I like the Rockets and that bushel of points.