Updated Oscar Odds, Favorites & Trends for 97th Academy Awards

• The 97th Academy Awards will air live on Sunday, March 2nd, 2025 on ABC
• Anora is the favorite for Best Picture, but The Brutalist and Conclave remain strong contenders
• See the updated 2025 Oscar odds and trends in the hours leading up to the 97th Academy Awards

Hollywood’s biggest night, the 97th Academy Awards, is set to take place on Sunday, March 2, 2025, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

With less than two hours until the ceremony begins, let’s take a closer look at the current Kalshi market odds for the top categories at this year’s Oscars.

Best Picture Odds

Odds via Kalshi as of March 2nd, 2025. Learn how to bet the Oscars at Kalshi Predictive Trading.

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Conclave Surges, Anora Remains Favorite

Anora, the gripping drama about a Brooklyn stripper who marries a Russian oligarch’s son, remains the Best Picture frontrunner with a 65% implied probability. However, its lead has decreased by 9 points in recent trading, while Conclave, the Vatican thriller, has seen a significant 16-point surge.

Conclave’s momentum can be attributed to its recent win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. While this honor isn’t a perfect predictor of Best Picture success (only six of the last ten SAG Ensemble winners have gone on to claim the top Oscar), it undoubtedly positions Conclave as Anora’s strongest competitor.

The Brutalist, which tells the story of a Holocaust survivor’s journey as an architect in America, sits third in the odds with a 13% chance. Despite praise for its scale and Adrien Brody’s lead performance, it has seen a 4-point dip in the betting markets.

Best Actor Odds

Chalamet Challenges Brody’s Lead

Adrien Brody, who portrays Holocaust survivor and architect László Tóth in The Brutalist, remains the Best Actor favorite with a 69% implied probability. However, his lead has decreased by 7 points, while Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) has seen an 11-point boost, bringing his chances to 30%.

Chalamet’s rise can be attributed to his recent SAG Award win for his portrayal of Bob Dylan. Historically, the SAG Best Actor winner has gone on to claim the Oscar 83% of the time since 2010. While Brody swept the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, Chalamet’s SAG victory suggests the race may be tighter than we initially thought.

Ralph Fiennes, nominated for his role as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence in Conclave, sits a distant third with a 4% chance. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) are given virtually no chance by the betting market.

Best Actress Odds

Moore, Madison Swap Places

The Best Actress race has seen a dramatic shift, with Demi Moore (The Substance) and Mikey Madison (Anora) essentially swapping positions in the betting markets. Moore, who plays an aging actress undergoing a grotesque transformation to stay relevant, has surged 23 points to a 67% chance.

Meanwhile, Madison, who portrays a Brooklyn stripper navigating a doomed marriage to a Russian oligarch’s son, has seen a substantial 22-point drop to a 28% chance. Moore’s rise can be attributed to her wins at the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Awards.

Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, sits third with a 9% chance, seeing a slight 2-point uptick. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) have less than a 1% chance.

Best Director Odds

Baker Dominates Director Race

Sean Baker (Anora) has strengthened his position as the Best Director frontrunner, with a 68% implied probability, a 5-point increase. Baker’s wins at the Directors Guild, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globe awards make him the clear favorite.

Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) sits second with a 31% chance, an 8-point decrease. Despite Corbet’s Golden Globe (Drama) and Venice Silver Lion wins, Baker’s industry momentum and Anora’s Best Picture frontrunner status give him a decisive edge.

Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) has seen a slight 3-point uptick to a 4% chance, notable as the first woman nominated in the category since 2021. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) have minimal chances, according to the betting market.

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