Arizona vs Iowa State Predictions, Picks & Odds for Big 12 Showdown

• The #9 Iowa State Cyclones are 5.5-point home favorites over the #22 Arizona Wildcats tonight
• Arizona defeated Iowa State 86-75 earlier this season
• Check out the Arizona vs Iowa State prediction, picks and odds, below

One of the biggest games on today’s college hoops slate pits #22 Arizona (19-9, 13-4 Big 12) against #9 Iowa State (21-7, 11-6 Big 12). Online sportsbooks are bullish on the Cyclones, pegging them as home chalk in the college basketball odds.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 pm ET from the Hilton Coliseum, in Ames, IA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Arizona Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones Odds

Iowa State is currently favored by 5.5-points, in a contest with a total of 151.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the spread has moved a point in the Cyclones favor since opening odds were released, while the over/under is down 2 points.

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Arizona vs Iowa State Prediction

Given both teams’ recent performances, it might come as a surprise that Iowa State is laying so many points. The Cyclones have dropped back-to-back games, losing by 8 or more both times. They’ve faced Arizona once already this season, and fell by 11 on the road.

If we dig a little deeper, there’s a fairly easy explanation. Injuries have wreaked havoc on Iowa State this year. Over the past month, they’ve had to play frequently without three of their top-four scorers. Curtis Jones, Keshon Gilbert and Milan Momcilovic have all been in and out of the lineup. That’s forced multiple changes to the starting lineup, including shifting Jones to the starting five, removing the threat of instant offense off the bench.

The good news is the team is almost back to 100%. Gilbert is the only question mark heading into this contest, and there’s a lot of optimism that he’ll be ready to roll. That’s huge, because with Gilbert and Momcilovic in the lineup, the Cyclones are nearly unstoppable. They’re 18-1 in those games, with their only loss being a 2-point defeat to #1 Auburn, the favorite in the March Madness odds.

Arizona vs Iowa State Ratings

As for that loss in January versus the Wildcats, don’t read too much into it. Iowas State dominated the game and had a chance to ice it in the dying seconds. A missed free throw and a desperation Caleb Love half court heave later, and the game was off to overtime, where Arizona eventually pulled away.

If Gilbert is a go, I’m all in on Iowa State tonight and would even consider alt lines for a juicier payout. Even if he sits, I still expect the Cyclones to cover, in large part due to the Wildcats road struggles.

Arizona vs Iowa State Picks

• Iowa State -5.5 (-115) at Bet MGM

Arizona’s three-point field goal percentage dips from 34% at home, to 27.6% on the road. That latter number would rank 350th in the nation extrapolated over the entire season. In order to be efficient offensively, they’re likely going to have to excel in the half court. Easier said than done versus Iowa State.

The Cyclones are 11th in defensive rating and 32nd in opponent points per possession in the half court. They’re top-15 in steals, and top-20 in defensive rebounding.

Offensively, they feature four players who average in double-figures (if Gilbert plays), and boast an effective field goal percentage of 54%. In the last 14 games Momcilovic and Gilbet have suited up together, Iowa State is 14-0, winning 12 times by at least 9 points. That’s good enough for me to make the Cyclones -5.5 my best bet for this Big 12 showdown.