Ohtani, Judge Favored in 2025 MLB MVP Odds
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Reigning NL and AL MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are favored to repeat in their respective leagues in 2025
- At least one of Ohtani and Judge has won an MVP award in each of the last four seasons
- Below, see the opening AL and NL MVP odds for 2025
MLB Opening Day is just over a month away (March 27th) and the awards futures are out for all the major hardware. Today, we’re looking at the 2025 NL MVP and AL MVP odds, which show very familiar faces at the top of the board.
NL & AL MVP Odds
The favorites in both leagues are the reigning champions: the Los Angeles Dodgers’ two-way star Shohei Ohtani in the National League, and the New York Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge in the American League.
National League MVP Favorites
In a surprise to absolutely no one, the preseason MLB MVP odds heavily favor LAD’s Shohei Ohtani winning his four career Most-Valuable Player award, and his second in as many tries on the Senior Circuit.
Ohtani finished last season with the top WAR in the NL at 9.1, despite not pitching a single inning in his first season as a Dodger. He collected all 30 first-place votes in the NL MVP voting. And the 2025 season could yield even more ludicrous numbers for the two-way phenom.
Sonja Chen reported on MLB.com that Ohtani was likely to resume pitching in May 2025. Ohtani let the National League in home runs (54), mashing 15 more than any other player in the league. He finished second only to Judge (58) in the MLB as a whole. Ohtani’s best season in terms of FanGraphs WAR was 9.2 back in 2022 with the Angels.
At +170, Ohtani has a 37.04% implied win probability. The only time in the last four seasons when Ohtani didn’t win MVP was in 2022, when he finished runner-up during Aaron Judge’s record-setting 62-home run season.
The second-favorite on the board is a player making his return to the NL after a single season in Pinstripes: Juan Soto (+550), who’s moving from the Bronx to Queens to suit up for the Mets in 2025. A perennial preseason favorite, the 26-year-old Soto has yet to win an MLB MVP award. The closest he came was a runner-up finish to Bryce Harper in 2021 while still with the Nationals. He was third in AL voting last year, behind Judge and Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr.
American League MVP Favorites
Aaron Judge tops the AL preseason MVP odds once again, coming off his second-career trophy in 2024. At +310, Judge’s implied win probability is 24.39%, considerably lower than Ohtani’s. Judge led the MLB in WAR (10.8), OPS (1.159), and home runs (58) last season. He did the same in 2022, his other MVP season. In 2023, he was limited to just 106 games due to injury, bu still managed a 1.019 OPS and 37 home runs, finishing 15th in MVP voting despite missing 35% of the season.
Like Ohtani in the NL, Judge earned all 30 first-place votes in the 2024 AL MVP voting.
Young Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr is seen as Judge’s biggest threat, priced at +450 (18.18% implied win probability). Witt is coming off a historically good season that would have won him the MVP a lot of other years. He finished with a .332 average, 32 home runs, and an impressive 9.4 WAR in just his third season in the bigs.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
