UCLA vs USC Odds, Predictions & Best Bets (NCAAW, Feb 13)

The first of two battles for Los Angeles women’s basketball supremacy will take place Thursday night when JuJu Watkins and No. 6 USC (21-2) play host to No. 1 UCLA (23-0). The Big Ten matchup will tip-off at 10:00 pm ET on Peacock.

UCLA vs USC Odds

The Trojans opened as a 1.5-point favorite against their arch rival, but that has since flipped to the Bruins, who are also -120 on the moneyline.

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UCLA jumped to No. 1 in the country after defeating South Carolina 77-62 on Nov. 24, and has remained there since, dominating opponents with 18 straight double-digit victories. That includes wins against No. 9 Ohio State (65-52), No. 17 Maryland (82-67), No. 24 Creighton (70-41) and No. 25 Baylor (72-57).

Ohio State did put a momentary scare into the Bruins a week ago, as the game was tied early in the fourth quarter. The Bruins went on a 19-1 run after the Buckeyes tied it, however, holding Ohio State without a field goal in the final 7:20.

Three days later, Ohio State went to USC and lost by 21 in a game that was essentially out of reach the entire second half.

The Ohio State win is one of two top-ten victories for the Trojans, who also own a 72-70 road victory over UConn, the top-rated team in the country at barttorvik.com.

USC does have a pair of losses on its resume, falling to No. 2 Notre Dame at home on Nov. 23, and unranked Iowa on the road on Feb. 2. The Notre Dame loss has aged incredibly well, as the Irish have dominated multiple top 10 teams. The Iowa loss is more of a head scratcher, although it did come on the day the Hawkeyes retired Caitlin Clark’s number, which certainly added to the atmosphere.

UCLA vs. USC Player Props

The two biggest stars in this game each get a points prop hovering right near their averages. Watkins is averaging 23.9 points per game, but has only cleared 23.5 once in her past six games.

In six games against ranked opponents, she has scored 24 or more points four times. The two she has not, however, were her two most recent chances, including a 17-point effort last time out against Ohio State. It wasn’t for lack of usage, as she shot just 23.8% from the field in that game.

Betts is averaging 19.6 points per game this season, but has not been much of an offensive force of late. While she did score 19 in the win against Ohio State, she was held to just nine points in UCLA’s most recent outing against Oregon, and six points on Feb. 2 against Minnesota. She did have 11 assists against the Gophers, though, in the blowout win.

UCLA vs USC Prediction

This is by far UCLA’s biggest test since the South Carolina win, as it heads into hostile territory against a top 10 opponent. The Bruins’ two biggest weaknesses this season – free throw rate and turnover rate – are two things that could be heavily impacted by the atmosphere.

If USC, which is good but not elite at turning teams over, can hassle the Bruins and get out running, it will avoid having to deal too much with UCLA’s defense, which is ranked third nationally in adjusted efficiency by Torvik.

But this is also the most well-rounded team USC has seen all year. Not even Notre Dame, which was missing key pieces when it headed to LA, had the type of balance the Bruins will bring to the Galen Center.

UCLA has three players – Lauren Betts (19.6), Kiki Rice (12.7) and Gabriela Jaquez (10.3) — averaging double figures in points per game, and four others who are at 8.0 ppg or higher.

Betts leads the way there with 19.6 points per game, while also pulling down a team-leading 9.7 rebounds. Her matchup with former Stanford teammate Kiki Iriafen will be a huge factor in this game, as Iriafen is averaging 18 points and 8.4 rebounds, herself. Betts did not play against Stanford a year ago, so unfortunately, we do not have a prior matchup to go off.

What this will ultimately come down to, however, is how UCLA handles Watkins, viewed by many as the nation’s best player. She wasn’t really slowed down in either of USC’s losses, scoring 24 points against Notre Dame and 27 against Iowa. But she was ineffective from 3-point range in both, missing all five attempts against Notre Dame and going 1-of-7 against Iowa.

UCLA has the defenders to guard her at all levels, and at 6-foot-7, Betts can help clean things up underneath. But if JuJu goes off, all other analysis might not matter. She’s that type of player.

UCLA vs. USC Picks:

• USC -1.5 (-110) (Pick was made prior to the line movement)
• Under 139.5 (-110)
• Watkins Over 23.5 points (-114)

Women’s Basketball Futures

This crosstown matchup in LA could have a significant impact on a pair of futures bets being offered at FanDuel.

Betts is the current favorite to win the Women’s Wooden Award at +125, while Watkins is third at +250. Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo is listed second in the odds at +175, and the list gets into longshot territory after Watkins, with UConn’s Paige Bueckers fourth at +8000.

Watkins and Betts will play in perhaps the two biggest remaining regular-season games, with their two matchups (today and at UCLA on March 1), which could determine the winner of that award.

Another women’s basketball future offered at FanDuel is UCLA to complete an undefeated regular season, with Yes at +410 and No at –700. If you think UCLA is going to win, this might be a nicer option than the -120 moneyline.

This is the Bruins’ toughest remaining matchup, as they close with Michigan State and Illinois at home, followed by trips to Iowa and Wisconsin before the rematch with USC at Pauley Pavilion.