Commanders vs Eagles Prediction, Pick & Odds for NFC Championship Game

• We’ve made our Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles prediction for the NFC Championship Game
• The latest WAS vs PHI odds favor the Eagles by 6 points at home
• Read below for Commanders vs Eagles prediction, odds and expert picks

The Washington Commanders (14-5) head to Lincoln Financial Field to battle the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) with a Super Bowl berth on the line in the NFC Championship Game. The Commanders are riding high after upset wins over the Buccaneers and Lions, while the top-seeded Eagles took care of business against the Rams and Packers.

These NFC East rivals split their regular season series, with the Commanders stunning Philly 36-33 in Week 16 behind rookie QB phenom Jayden Daniels. The Eagles won the first meeting 26-18 back in November on the strength of 146 rushing yards from Saquon Barkley.

Here is a look at our Commanders vs Eagles prediction, along with the latest betting odds for the NFC Championship Game.

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Odds

The Commanders vs Eagles odds show Philadelphia as a 6-point home favorite, giving them a 66.7% implied probability of advancing to the Super Bowl. The Eagles must win by a touchdown or more to cover the spread.

The line opened with Philadelphia as 4.5-point chalk before ticking up to -6.5 and then settling back at -6. The total has also seen sharp movement, dropping from 48.5 to 47.5 despite 87% of public bets coming in on the Over, per NFL Public Betting Trends. This reverse line movement signals respected money on the Under from professional bettors.

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Odds current as of January 25, 2025 at Caesars Sportsbook. Browse the latest NFL betting odds for Conference Championships.

Commanders Betting Outlook

The Commanders have been the Cinderella story of the NFL playoffs, riding the magical right arm of Jayden Daniels to road upsets of the Buccaneers and top-seeded Lions. The rocket-armed rookie has amassed 567 passing yards and five touchdowns with no picks in the postseason.

Daniels’ favorite target Terry “Scary Terry” McLaurin has been nearly unstoppable, catching 14 balls for 264 yards and three scores. The veteran wideout torched Philly for 12 grabs, 191 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season, so slowing him down will be priority #1 for the Eagles’ elite pass defense.

While Daniels and the passing game have dominated the headlines, Washington’s backfield tandem of Brian Robinson Jr. and Daniels himself can’t be overlooked. The duo combined for 1,690 rushing yards and 14 TDs in the regular season. Establishing the run to set up play-action will be critical on Sunday.

Defensively, the Commanders have been merely average, ranking 16th in total defense (327.9 YPG) and 19th in scoring (23.0 PPG). They’ll have their hands full with an Eagles offense that put up 27.2 PPG in the regular season. Getting pressure on the banged-up Jalen Hurts will be Washington’s best chance of slowing down Philly’s attack.

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Eagles Betting Outlook

The Eagles have been the NFC’s most dominant team all season long, racing out to a 14-1 start before a few late hiccups. They’ve gotten the job done with an old-school formula – a punishing run game and a suffocating defense.

Despite a nagging knee injury, All-Pro RB Saquon Barkley has steamrolled opponents all year, amassing 2,005 yards and 13 scores on the ground. He’ll be the focal point of the Eagles’ offensive game plan on Sunday as Philly looks to control the clock and keep Daniels off the field. Barkley’s rushing yards prop is at 127 yds in the NFL Player props.

https://x.com/saquon/status/1881365230162423845

Under center, Jalen Hurts has managed games efficiently with 18 TDs and just five picks. However, he’s been hampered by injuries and hasn’t practiced in full this week. If Hurts’ mobility is compromised, it could limit Philly’s usually creative play-calling. Hurts’ 27-29.5 rushing yards prop indicates he will, in fact, be limited as a runner.

The Eagles’ defense has been an absolute beast, allowing a league-low 278.4 YPG and the third-fewest points (17.8 PPG). They held opponents under 20 points on 11 occasions. Young standouts like DT Jalen Carter and CB Cooper DeJean have made immediate impacts, while safeties Reed Blankenship and CJ Gardner-Johnson lead a stingy secondary. Philly will likely play more zone and cut back on the blitzes to limit big plays.

Commanders vs Eagles Prediction

While the Commanders have been a great story, I believe their Cinderella run ends on Sunday in Philadelphia. The Eagles are battle-tested and playing in front of a rowdy home crowd. I expect their dominant defense to force Daniels into more check-downs and limit explosive plays.

Offensively, look for the Eagles to ride Barkley and the ground game to control the clock and wear down Washington’s defense. Hurts will likely be asked to manage the game rather than win it with his arm. The Eagles have gone Under in 11 of their 19 games (57%).

While I lean Philly, I’m not confident playing the spread. I’m looking to the over/under for my best NFL bet. The line movement indicates sharps are expecting a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game. The total has also gone Under in four of the Eagles’ last six home games on Sundays. We’re in for a potential slugfest at the Linc.

NFC Championship Picks & Prediction:

• Eagles/Commanders UNDER 47.5 Points (-110 at MGM)