NFL Picks Against the Spread for the Conference Championships
By Zach Reger in NFL Football
Published:
- At the end of Sunday, we will know which teams will be playing in Super Bowl 59
- The Commanders and Eagles play in the NFC Championship at 3 pm ET, and the Bills and Chiefs play in the AFC Championship at 6:30 pm ET
- See below for my favorite NFL ATS picks for Conference Championship Weekend
Just four teams remain in the 2024-25 NFL season. By the end of the weekend, we will know which team will represent the NFC and which team will represent the AFC at the Caesars Superdome in Super Bowl 59. NFC East foes will face each other for the third time this season, and then we get another edition of Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes.
This NFL postseason, I have gone 6-3-1 (66.67%) in my against the spread picks. Keep reading to see who I am betting on in the NFC and AFC Championship games.
NFL Conference Championship Picks Against the Spread
| Matchup | Spread | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Commanders vs Eagles | PHI -6 | Eagles -6 |
| Bills vs Chiefs | KC -1.5 | Chiefs -1.5 |
Odds as of Saturday, January 25 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the best DraftKings promo code before locking in your NFC and AFC Championship bets this weekend.
ATS Pick #1: Eagles -6 vs Commanders
The Commanders and Eagles meet for the third time this season and head into this one split. The Eagles won the first matchup 26-18 in Week 11 then lost to the Commanders in a 36-33 Week 16 thriller. Philadelphia was a 4.5-point favorite in the opening NFL odds in this game, but the Eagles have now moved to -6.
Admittedly, the Commanders are not a team I want to fade right now. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been incredible in the playoffs. In the Wildcard and Divisional rounds, Daniels threw for 567 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He also rushed for 87 yards through the two games. Still, as a team, this will be their fourth straight road game that they have played dating back to Week 18. Philadelphia’s defense also presents much more of a threat than Tampa Bay and Detroit.
Yes, Daniels did lead Washington to a 36-33 win against this Eagles defense several weeks ago, but I believe this will be different with Philadelphia back at home this time. In fact, this will be their fifth straight home game.
The biggest factor in this game will be Washington’s ability to stop Saquon Barkley and Philadelphia’s rushing attack. In Saquon’s two playoff games this season, he has put up 119 and 205 rushing yards. He now faces the Commanders’s 30th-ranked defense who just gave up 201 rushing yards to the Lions last week. Jalen Hurts not being 100% makes it easier for Washington to key in on Saquon, but he will still get his in this game.
The Commanders have been a great story and a fun team to watch all season, but unfortunately, this is where it comes to an end. I am betting on Philadelphia to win this game by at least a touchdown with their running game, defense, and Jalen Hurts making just enough plays through the air.
- NFC Championship: Eagles -6 (-112)Â
ATS Pick #2: Chiefs -1.5 vs Bills
The Bills and Chiefs meet once again in the playoffs. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have played each other eight times in their careers and they are both 4-4. The difference is that Josh Allen is 4-1 in the regular season, while Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 in the playoffs. One of those regular season wins for Allen was this season as the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Buffalo. While all the playoff games have been close, I believe the Chiefs will get it done at home yet again.
Not that any team playing in a conference championship game has to look far for motivation, both of these teams have a lot they are fighting for. The Bills are looking to finally beat Kansas City and dethrone the Chiefs, while KC is looking to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs also have the revenge factor since they lost to the Bills already this season.
Buffalo’s defense has been hurt and has struggled to stop teams this season. Even though they beat the Ravens, they allowed 416 yards against Baltimore. They forced turnovers at the right times and had some fortune on their side, and that will likely not happen on Sunday vs the Chiefs. All season long, the Bills have especially struggled out of the gate on defense, and the playoffs have been no different. They do not want to give the Chiefs an early lead in this game.
I expect a vintage Mahomes and Travis Kelce performance vs Buffalo and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins should make a big impact. He only had one target last week against the Texans, but this is the kind of game where he can make a difference. Overall, this is going to be another classic, close game, but it is hard to bet against Mahomes in this spot, who is 8-0 straight up and against the spread in his career in the playoffs as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. I will take the Chiefs here in what should be a great game.
- AFC Championship Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-112)
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Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.
