Odds on Who President Trump Will Pardon Next: Bannon, Assange, Guiliani & More

• Odds are available on who Donald Trump will pardon next
• Steve Bannon is currently a top contender, according to Kalshi
• Read below for analysis and predictions for who Trump will pardon next

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Fresh off his election victory, Donald Trump has traders predicting who might get a presidential pardon first. With $2.6 million already bet on Kalshi’s prediction markets, Steve Bannon leads the pack. But his 33% odds suggest it’s far from a lock.

From former mayors to crypto figures, and even a couple of rappers, the list of potential pardon recipients has some interesting names in the mix.

Let’s take a look at the odds of who President Trump will pardon next, and offer our expert insight.

Who Will Donald Trump Pardon?

Traders are putting their money on Steve Bannon as the most likely to get a pardon, though it’s still just a 1-in-3 chance. Former NYC Mayor Eric Adams is running second, while crypto figures Roger Ver and Justin Sun are in the mix, too.

Surprisingly, a couple of rappers made the top 10 – NBA YoungBoy and Young Thug. With $2.6 million already bet, people are clearly invested in figuring out who’s getting pardoned first.

Market prices as of Jan. 24 at Kalshi. New users can sign up for Kalshi with the Kalshi promo code “DIME” to start trading today.

Betting Favorites to be Pardoned

Steve Bannon: 33% Chance (Trading at 33¢)

Steve Bannon isn’t just another guy in Trump’s circle – he’s a master at playing the political game and dodging legal bullets.

 https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/1881362341255844050

Fresh off a four-month stint in federal prison for blowing off the January 6th committee, Bannon’s legal troubles aren’t over yet. He’s headed to trial in New York on February 25th, 2025, where prosecutors say he and his team pocketed over $1 million from “We Build the Wall” donors.

Bannon’s not backing down, though. “Pelosi imprisoned me for a misdemeanor,” he recently declared, “I feel more empowered than ever.” With his tight connection to Trump still intact, betting markets give him a solid 1-in-3 shot at a pardon.

Eric Adams: 26% Chance (Trading at 26¢)

Eric Adams is walking a tightrope right now. The NYC mayor is staring down federal corruption charges that could land him behind bars, and he’s not being subtle about wanting Trump’s help. He’s facing five serious charges – bribery, wire fraud, and trying to get campaign money from foreign sources.

Adams is pulling out all the stops to get on Trump’s good side. He even skipped out on Martin Luther King Jr. Day events to show up at Trump’s inauguration – a move that’s got Black political leaders shaking their heads. As political consultant Chris Coffey put it: “His legal issues trump – no pun intended – his political issues.”

Roger Ver: 25% Chance (Trading at 29¢)

They call him “Bitcoin Jesus,” and Roger Ver could sure use some divine intervention right now. He’s looking at a $48 million tax evasion case that could mean 109 years behind bars. His unexpected guardian angel? Elon Musk, who’s taking a personal interest in his case through Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.).

Roger Ver deserves a pardon to liberate him from the malicious prosecution he still faces–lawfare that threatens to take his freedom for 109 years for an exotic crime he *clearly* did not commit.

Pardoning Roger is the strongest signal the President could send that Biden’s war… pic.twitter.com/oOysjHw8ED

— Bret Weinstein (@BretWeinstein) January 20, 2025

Ver’s supporters say he’s getting a raw deal. Crypto advocate Naomi Brockwell argues this case could make it harder for everyone to protect their privacy and defend themselves in court.

Other Top Contenders to be Pardoned

Julian Assange: 21% Chance (Trading at 21¢)

Assange’s odds of getting a pardon are sitting at about one in five, and he’s still stirring up controversy from his spot in the headlines. He just scored a win in British courts, getting the chance to appeal his extradition to the U.S.

He’s facing 17 espionage charges plus one for computer misuse, all stemming from WikiLeaks dropping those classified military docs back in 2010. Whether he gets pardoned depends on some tricky diplomatic dealing and growing calls to protect press freedom.

Edward Snowden: 20% Chance (Trading at 21¢)

Snowden’s been trying to find his way home since 2013, when he blew the whistle on those massive government surveillance programs. He’s got some interesting allies in his corner now – Trump supporters Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard are pushing hard for his pardon.

He’s been calling Moscow home since 2013, and Russia made it official with citizenship in 2022. His case is a perfect storm of national security concerns, whistleblower rights, and political chess moves.

Rudy Giuliani: 19% Chance (Trading at 20¢)

Giuliani’s got about a one-in-five shot at a pardon, but his situation’s complicated. He’s knee-deep in legal trouble, including that $148 million defamation verdict he’s got to deal with. The catch? Even Trump’s pardon powers might not help with his civil cases.

Longshots to Be Pardoned

NBA YoungBoy: 8% Chance (Trading at 7¢)

Kentrell DeSean Gaulden’s got a release date set for July 27, 2025, after working out a deal on federal gun and drug charges. He’s been in and out of court, with all the legal drama putting a serious dent in his music career.

Young Thug: 7% Chance (Trading at 7¢)

Young Thug just took a guilty plea in his big RICO case, which might help his chances. The trial got everyone talking about whether prosecutors should be allowed to use rap lyrics as evidence in court.

YOUNG THUG IS FREE!!!

HE HAS ACCEPTED A PLEA DEAL AND WILL SERVE 15 YEARS PROBATION pic.twitter.com/9oPiuUeXkz

— DailyRapFacts (@DailyRapFacts) October 31, 2024

Joe Exotic: 7% Chance (Trading at 7¢)

The Tiger King’s still holding out hope for a presidential get-out-of-jail-free card. He’s doing 22 years for trying to hire someone to take out a rival, and he’s been working every angle he can think of to catch Trump’s eye on social media.

Trump Pardoning Himself: 2% Chance (Trading at 2¢)

Nobody’s quite sure if a president can pardon themselves – it’s never been done before. Legal experts are still arguing about whether it’s allowed, but traders aren’t betting much on Trump taking this route.