Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Picks & Predictions for AFC Championship

• The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship
• Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 straight up and ATS vs Josh Allen in the playoffs
• See the Bills vs Chiefs odds, picks and predictions, below

For the fourth time in five seasons, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in the postseason. The two heavyweights will square off in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, with Buffalo finally looking to get the monkey off its back. Kansas City is 3-0 in the Patrick Mahomes era versus the Bills in the playoffs, and online sportsbooks expect that trend to continue per the latest NFL betting lines. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm ET, from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, in Kansas City, MO, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

The Chiefs are currently favored by 1.5-points although that number does vary between sportsbooks. Caesars is the most prominent book offering that line, with others showing KC as high as -2.5. Total-wise, the over/under sits at 48.5 across the board. The Chiefs are -125 moneyline favorites, with the Bills coming back as +105 underdogs.

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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110) at Caesars

KC enters play as the second choice in the Super Bowl odds. A win versus Buffalo will keep them on track to be the first team to ever three-peat.

These two teams met earlier this season, with the Bills emerging as 30-21 winners. Buffalo is 4-1 versus the Chiefs in the regular season during the Allen/Mahomes era, but the success hasn’t carried over to the postseason. A victory in KC on Sunday will be tough to come by for a few reasons.

Let’s start with the Bills injury situation. Buffalo will be missing a pair of starters in the secondary. Safety Taylor Rapp has already been ruled out, while corner Christian Benford is still in concussion protocol. The loss of Rapp will be felt heavily over the middle of the field. The Chiefs love to target that area, and will spam it relentlessly with Travis Kelce.

Kelce has at least five catches and 70+ yards in 14 straight playoff games. He went for 7 catches, 117 yards and a TD in the Divisional Round, after racking up a career-low 823 receiving yards in the regular season.

Also working against Buffalo, is Mahomes’ prowess at home. The three-time Super Bowl champ has won 20 straight games in KC when temperatures are below 40 degrees. He’s 7-0 against the spread in the postseason as an underdog or favorite of 3 points or less, covering by an average of 5.9 points per game.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Allen. The Bills star is 0-4 straight up in road playoff games. He’s also never won consecutive games outright as an underdog, going 0-15 in the contest following an upset victory.

Kansas City struggled to find offense in the Divisional Round versus Houston, but the Texans possess one of the best pass rushes in the game. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are exceptional edge rushers, and were able to make Mahomes uncomfortable. The Bills pass rush is mediocre, and lacks those types of disruptors.

Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes in the Playoffs

Mahomes has zero interceptions in three playoff games against Buffalo, and 9 total TD. The Bills owned the best turnover differential in the league in 2024, generating 35 takeaways, against only 8 giveaways. Winning the turnover battle was key to Buffalo’s win over Baltimore last week, and would go a long way to helping them secure an upset on Sunday.

Ultimately, it’s just bad business betting against Mahomes and the Chiefs as short favorites or underdogs. Throw in home field advantage, favorable matchups over the middle and a cleaner injury report, and betting KC at this price is a slam dunk.