Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Pick & Odds for Sunday Night Football

• We’ve made our Falcons vs Commanders prediction for a massive Week 17 NFC clash on Sunday Night Football
• The latest ATL vs WAS odds show the Commanders sitting as 3.5-point home favorites over the Falcons
• Read below for Falcons vs Commanders prediction, odds, and expert SNF picks for Dec. 29

The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) are heading to the nation’s capital for a prime-time showdown with the Washington Commanders (10-5) on Sunday Night Football. Both teams find themselves fighting for their playoff lives in a game that was flexed to the SNF spotlight due to its massive postseason implications.

Atlanta is currently tied with the Buccaneers atop the NFC South standings. A victory here would put them in pole position to claim the division crown. Meanwhile, Washington can punch their ticket to the postseason with a win in front of their home crowd.

Rookie quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels will square off under the bright lights in a historic matchup. It marks the first time two first-round rookie signal-callers have faced each other on Sunday Night Football. With so much on the line, we should be in for an epic battle at Northwest Stadium.

Here’s a look at the latest Falcons vs Commanders odds for Week 17, along with our betting preview and SNF predictions.

Falcons vs Commanders Odds

The Falcons vs Commanders odds have Washington pegged as 3.5-point home favorites with an over/under of 46.5 points. The line originally opened with the Commanders favored by 5 points before sharp money pushed it down to the current number.

The NFL public betting percentages show that Washington is currently drawing 72% of the bets against the spread. However, fading the public tends to be profitable in NFL betting, especially down the final stretch.

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Odds as of December 29, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Register with the BetMGM promo code or browse available NFL betting promos for Sunday Night Football.

Falcons Betting Outlook

Atlanta comes into this one riding high after an impressive 34-7 beatdown of the Giants in Week 16. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. looked steady in his first NFL start, connecting on 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards. The Washington product now gets set for his first prime-time appearance on the road in a high-stakes contest.

Michael Penix Jr. is ready for Sunday Night Football. 🏈 pic.twitter.com/9HKOkVbJoD

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 27, 2024

While Penix didn’t find paydirt through the air, he engineered multiple scoring drives and avoided costly mistakes. The Falcons’ ground game did the heavy lifting, piling up 127 yards and two touchdowns behind dynamic youngster Bijan Robinson.

Look for a heavy dose of Robinson against a Washington run defense that’s giving up 137.4 yards per game (29th).

On the defensive side, the Falcons snagged two interceptions and limited New York to just 234 total yards. They’ve now racked up 16 sacks over their last four games after managing only 10 through the first 11 weeks. Getting after Commanders QB Jayden Daniels will be crucial in this one.

Commanders Betting Outlook

Washington has been on an absolute tear lately, winning seven of their last eight games. Daniels has been nothing short of spectacular in his rookie campaign, putting up 3,303 passing yards, 737 rushing yards and 28 total touchdowns. The young gun is making a compelling case for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

Jayden Daniels is 79 yards away from breaking the NFL record for most rushing yards in a season by a rookie QB. ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/NfQTfKBYWs

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) December 26, 2024

In last week’s wild 36-33 win over the Eagles, Daniels lit it up for 258 yards and a career-high five touchdowns. His go-to target Terry McLaurin eclipsed 1,000 yards on the season, hauling in five catches for 60 yards and a score.

The Daniels-McLaurin connection should test an Atlanta secondary allowing 223.4 passing yards per game (20th).

The Commanders’ defense has been getting after quarterbacks all year, ranking 4th in the NFL with 65 sacks. Veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner anchors the unit with 118 tackles. They’ll look to make life uncomfortable for Penix in his first road start.

Falcons vs Commanders Prediction

I’m rolling with the Falcons as 3.5-point road dogs in this Sunday Night Football matchup. Penix has never crumpled under the spotlight in his young football career to date, and this is his chance for a statement game in a tough environment to prove he’s the team’s future QB.

The Falcons’ punishing ground attack, spearheaded by the electric Bijan Robinson, should find plenty of running lanes against a Washington defense that’s been gashed for 137.4 yards per game on the ground (29th). That should open things up for Penix, who showed great poise in his starting debut.

Special: #Falcons RB Bijan Robinson has forced an NFL-best 92 MISSED TACKLES this season.

He is an ALIEN 👽

(via @willmcfadden) pic.twitter.com/NVzbEzfCKj

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 28, 2024

Here’s what really catches my eye – sharp money has hammered this line down from Commanders -5 to the current -3.5. The pros have clearly identified value with the live road dog. I’m following the smart money and grabbing the points with an Atlanta squad playing its best ball at the perfect time.

The Falcons are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 versus NFC foes, while the Commanders have gone just 1-7 ATS in their last eight Week 17 games. I’m fading Washington in what could be a classic look-ahead spot with the playoffs on the horizon. Give me the Dirty Birds on SNF.

Falcons vs Commanders Pick:

• Falcons +3.5 (-112)