Texas Tech vs Arkansas Prediction, Picks & Odds – Liberty Bowl

• Check out our Texas Tech vs Arkansas prediction for the Liberty Bowl on December 27th, 2024
• The Red Raiders are slight favorites over the Razorbacks in Memphis
• Read on for Texas Tech vs Arkansas prediction, odds, injury updates, and expert pick

The college football bowl season continues Friday night under the lights at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. The Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) will take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) in the 64th AutoZone Liberty Bowl. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET with television coverage on ESPN.

Texas Tech opened as a slight 1.5-point underdog but the line has since shifted, with the Red Raiders now favored by 2.5 points. The total is set at 52.5 points.

Here is a look at our TTU vs Arkansas prediction, preview and odds for the Liberty Bowl.

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Odds

The odds imply Texas Tech has a 58.3% chance of winning the game outright, while Arkansas has a 45.5% implied probability. A $140 wager on Texas Tech would profit $100 if they emerge victorious, while a $100 bet on Arkansas would net $120 if the Razorbacks pull off the upset.

The movement in the spread, from Texas Tech +1.5 to -2.5, suggests sharp bettors and big money have come in on the Red Raiders. This could be due to Texas Tech’s strong finish to the season, covering in four of their last five games, and questions around Arkansas’s depleted roster with 27 players in the transfer portal.

The total of 52.5 points indicates oddsmakers expect a relatively high-scoring affair, likely driven by Texas Tech’s explosive offense that averaged 38.6 points per game (8th in FBS).

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Red Raiders Betting Analysis

Texas Tech will be without two key contributors in the Liberty Bowl. Top wide receiver Josh Kelly (89 receptions, 1,023 yards, 5 TDs) is sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Starting quarterback Behren Morton is also out after opting for postseason shoulder surgery.

Freshman Will Hammond will make his first collegiate start under center for TTU. While inexperienced, Hammond will have the luxury of an elite rushing attack led by star running back Tahj Brooks.

"For the final time at Jones AT&T Stadium, Texas Tech's all-time leading rusher…Tahj Brooks."

🥹West Texas in my eye. Thank you @just_tahj. 🫶 pic.twitter.com/onNHIm5NNS

— Seeing Scarlet (@SeeingScarlet_) November 30, 2024

The senior amassed 1,505 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground this season. His status is worth monitoring, though, as he’s yet to officially confirm if he’ll play Friday night.

Even with the coaching turnover losing both coordinators, Joey McGuire’s squad rallied to an impressive 8-4 record including 6-3 in Big 12 play. The Red Raiders finished the year strong with back-to-back wins over Iowa State and West Virginia. Their 4-1 ATS mark over the final 5 games is tied for the best in the Big 12.

If Brooks suits up and Hammond can manage the game, Texas Tech’s offense should be able to exploit an Arkansas defense that allowed 34 points to Missouri and 63 to Ole Miss.

Razorbacks Betting Analysis

Arkansas limps into the Liberty Bowl, losing three of its last five games while going just 2-3 ATS over that span. Even more concerning, the Razorbacks will be without several key players on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, top running back Ja’Quinden Jackson (790 rush yards, 15 TDs) and leading receiver Andrew Armstrong (78 catches, 1,140 yards) both opted out. Jackson’s absence is especially significant, considering Arkansas ranked 10th nationally with 32 rushing touchdowns.

Thank You Father God🙏🏽 pic.twitter.com/3AeeHCj9o6

— Ja'Quinden Jackson (@leg3ndaryjaay) December 11, 2024

The defense loses standout linemen Eric Gregory and Landon Jackson to the NFL Draft as well. In total, 27 Razorbacks entered the transfer portal, leaving huge question marks around the team’s depth.

Quarterback Taylen Green (2,813 pass yards, 13 TDs) will need to elevate his game, but it won’t be easy behind an offensive line that lost multiple starters. Green’s dual-threat ability (7 rush TDs) could be a x-factor, but he’ll be working with a completely revamped supporting cast.

On the bright side, Arkansas does have some positive recent history in this game. The Razorbacks are 3-0 in their last three Liberty Bowl appearances. They also lead the all-time series over Texas Tech 29-8.

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Prediction

In a battle of two former Southwest Conference rivals, I’ll back the Red Raiders to earn their first 9-win season since 2009. Texas Tech has the more stable program right now with fewer opt-outs and a coach in McGuire who has them trending up. The offense should still put up points even without QB Morton.

Arkansas has simply lost too much talent to season-ending injuries and the transfer portal. Expect their patchwork offense to struggle to keep pace if this turns into a shootout. The Razorbacks’ 2-4 ATS record in their last six games doesn’t inspire much confidence either.

My official pick is Texas Tech -2.5, as I see value on the Red Raiders given the massive personnel advantages they’ll have over an extremely shorthanded Arkansas squad. Back TTU on the spread, and throw their moneyline into your weekend college football parlay.

Liberty Bowl Pick:

• Red Raiders -2.5 (-110 at MGM)