NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets For Week 17: Predictions for TD Props

• NFL TD props for the early games of Week 17 are available at all major sportsbooks
• I have put together my favorite NFL touchdown picks for Week 17
• See the 11 players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 17 below!

With the NFL really spreading Week 17 out across multiple days – games played on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday – I have taken an early deep dive (and now a more extended deep dive) into the slate to find my favorite anytime TD scorer picks. I have now broken down Week 17 in its entirety, and have 11 players I have bet to score a touchdown in their respective games.

After some incredibly bad TD luck in early December, I went 7-3 on my TD picks last week to win 4.55 units. Here’s how I plan to keep the momentum going!

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 17

After starting with just three players when I published this piece on Wednesday morning, I am now up to 11 players I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 17. All of the picks above are half-unit bets, except for Derrick Henry, Bucky Irving, and Jonathan Taylor, who are full unit bets.

I don’t have an anytime TD scorer picked for the Cardinals vs Rams game on Saturday night, but may add one after I get some clear news on James Conner’s status. Kyren Williams dominates the red zone looks for the Rams, but his odds are too short. I’m not sure I want to trust any Cardinal to score with their season over.

Here’s my analysis on each of the anytime TD picks above!

Xavier Worthy

After he cashed for me last week, I’m coming back to Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown in Week 17. Everything I said last week seemed accurate, and I don’t think that’s going to change on a very short week. Worthy is becoming more and more involved in the Chiefs offense, seeing 11 targets in each of their last two games, while also adding three rushing attempts in each of them.

Worthy has taken advantage of those opportunities, scoring a touchdown in both games. He has also seen his snap counts rise significantly over the last three weeks, being on the field for at least 80% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in each of them. That’s a number he had not reached prior to this three-game stretch.

In regards to his touchdown probabilities, what’s most encouraging about the last two games is that he has seen eight red zone looks, which is tied for 7th-most in the NFL. The Chiefs are really starting to take advantage of his speed in the red zone, and it’s paying off for them.

I think they’ll need his speed again in Week 17 when they play a tough Steelers defense that ranks sixth in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed.

• Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+260 at FanDuel)

Derrick Henry

I’m not one to put a ton of stock into “due factor,” but Derrick Henry is so due to score a TD. After scoring a touchdown in each of his first 11 games as a Raven, totaling 15 in that span, he has been held out of the endzone in four straight games.

But he has played some defenses who are very tough against the run, especially in the red zone, in that time. The Eagles have only allowed nine rushing touchdowns, the Chargers have only allowed seven (fewest in the NFL), and the Steelers have allowed 13 – Lamar Jackson just decided he was throwing all the TDs against the Giants.

Henry’s red zone looks have gone down a little, dropping from 3.64 in his first 11 games to 3.0 in his last four. He has still handled 22+ touches in three of the last four, though. So, the volume is still there. Throw him against a defense that ranks sixth-worst in opponent red zone TD%, and I like him to get back into the endzone.

The Texans have also only allowed nine rushing TDs, while giving up 28 through the air, but I cannot say no to this price on Henry.

• Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-160 at DraftKings)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

While I think Kenneth Walker is the most likely player to score a touchdown in this game, his odds are too short for a guy who has been held out of the endzone in five of his last six. So, I’m moving to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who I believe presents the best value to score a TD in this game.

JSN is third on the Seahawks with six touchdowns this season, but only has a TD in five of 15 games. However, he (as well as the Seahawks offense) got off to a slow start, only scoring one touchdown in the first eight games. The second-year pro has scored a touchdown in four of his last seven games, with five total TDs in that span. He has also seen a massive 27.1% of the team’s red zone targets this year.

The Bears have only given up 17 touchdowns through the air, but rank second-last in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Plus, they have given up 30+ points in each of their three games since firing Matt Eberflus, and allowed six passing touchdowns in those games.

• Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+170 at DraftKings)

JK Dobbins

I’m not going to overthink this one. JK Dobbins is the top option in the Chargers offense when healthy, and he has been activated off the IR with the intention of playing.

In spite of only playing in 11 of LA’s 15 games this season, Dobbins still leads the team in red zone looks with 23, where Gus Edwards, who has been ruled out already, is second with 20. After those two running backs, it’s Quentin Johnston next with just eight. Dobbins has made good on those red zone touches, scoring a touchdown in six of 11 games, and totaling eight TDs.

The Chargers face a Patriots defense in Week 17 that allows the ninth-most points and 12th-most yards in the NFL. They have given up at least 144 rushing yards in each of their last three games, and I like Dobbins to get plenty of opportunities in his first game back after the LA offense largely struggled without him.

• Pick: JK Dobbins Anytime TD (+100 at FanDuel)

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Tee Higgins

As much as I would like to take a shot on one of Denver’s running backs, who are all seeing pretty long odds to score a touchdown, the uncertainty over how the touches will be divided, as well as Bo Nix’s up-and-down play, has me very hesitant. Instead, I am going with Tee Higgins to score a TD in this game.

Higgins has a TD in six of ten games this season and is averaging more red zone targets per game than teammate Ja’Marr Chase. I’m not normally one to bet against the Broncos secondary, who gets a big boost this week with the return of Riley Moss, but trying to cover this duo of Chase and Higgins man-to-man is going to be tough.

Denver plays the eighth-most man-coverage in the league, and Higgins has a higher target-share against man-coverage than Chase does. I think Joe Burrow will be able to execute the quick passing game well enough against this Denver defense that loves to bring pressure, and Higgins will get the better of Moss at least a couple times in his first game back.

• Pick: Tee Higgins Anytime TD (+150 at FanDuel)

Bucky Irving

I cashed with Bucky Irving last week and am coming back to him in Week 17. Irving and the Bucs take on an awful Panthers defense on Sunday. Carolina has surrendered the most points in the league, the second-most yards, and the most yards per carry.

Irving has a touchdown in four of his last six games, and I suspect a desperate Buccaneers team is going to lean on their explosive RB in a must-win game.

• Pick: Bucky Irving Anytime TD (-138 at bet365)

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James Cook

Following his second consecutive two-touchdown performance, James Cook is tied for the lead league in touchdowns with 16 ahead of his game with the Jets in Week 17. He has scored at least one TD in ten of 14 games this season.

New York only allows 4.1 yards per carry this season, but they have given up 19 touchdowns on the ground. When these two teams played in Week 6, Cook did not suit up. But even without him, the Bills rushed for 149 yards and a touchdown on 33 attempts.

Though the Bills cannot move up in the standings with a win, they do need wins to stay above the Ravens and ensure they play at least two playoff games at home. So, I like Cook to be active in the offense and find the endzone for a third straight game.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (-130 at ESPN Bet)

Jonathan Taylor

Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco under center for the Colts on Sunday, Jonathan Taylor’s odds to score a touchdown against the Giants in Week 17 should be much shorter than -150.

Taylor has only scored in six of the 12 games he has played this season, but he now has four total touchdowns over the last three weeks – three of them came last week against the Titans. This bet isn’t necessarily me being crazy over the Colts running back, though. It’s more about fading the awful Giants run defense that he’s facing. The Giants are allowing the fifth-most yards per carry and have allowed the eighth-most points in the NFL.

In another must-win game for the Colts, I suspect they’ll lean on their star running back to carry the load. If so, he’s going to break a couple long ones, and Indianapolis should also find their way into the red zone often.

Also, at the time of adding this section (Friday night), it sounds like Richardson is unlikely to play, which would prevent Taylor from having some of his goal line touches taken by his QB.

• Pick: Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-150 at BetMGM)

De’Von Achane

The high-level view of De’Von Achane’s season would tell you he has scored a touchdown in nine of 15 games. However, he did not score a single TD while Tua Tagovailoa was out of the lineup, meaning he has scored in nine of the 11 games Tagovailoa has played.

Tua is set to make the start for Miami when they take on the Browns in Week 17, and despite Cleveland not giving up much to running backs in the passing game, they rank 20th in yards allowed per rushing attempt and have given up 19 TDs on the ground.

With Dorian Thompson-Robinson set to start again, I like the Dolphins to be playing with a positive game script most of this one, but even if they aren’t, Achane will still get fed.

• Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-130 at DraftKings)

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Jordan Addison

When the Packers and Vikings met in Week 4, Jordan Addison was one of the game’s stars, as he scored two touchdowns – one on the ground and one receiving. Over the Vikings’ last six games, we have seen Addison become a much more consistent star in the offense as well.

The second-year WR has at least one touchdown in four of his last six games, and has totaled six in that timeframe. But the main reason for optimism about Addison continuing his recent stretch of success is his uptick in usage. Since Week 11, he has at least eight targets in all but one game, which was a feat he only accomplished once in his first seven games of the season.

With the Packers likely to try and contain Justin Jefferson, I like Addison to shine again in what should be a back-and-forth game.

• Pick: Jordan Addison Anytime TD (+170 at FanDuel)

Bijan Robinson

Over the last four weeks, Bijan Robinson has been the workhorse many expected him to be all season. He has at least 23 touches in each of those games, and saw 32 in one of them. The result has been at least one touchdown in three of the four, totaling four in that span.

Prior to this four-game stretch, Robinson had only seen 23 or more touches in four of the first 11 games, and never more than 26 in a game. With rookie Michael Penix Jr set to start again, I expect the Falcons to continue leaning on their stud running back.

Up against a Washington defense that just allowed 211 rushing yards to the Eagles, which could have been much more if Jalen Hurts didn’t leave the game so early, and allows the fourth-most rushing yards per attempt this season, I like Robinson to find the endzone in Week 17.

• Pick: Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-125 at FanDuel)

Sam LaPorta

For all the same reasons I wrote last week, I like Sam LaPorta to find the endzone for a second straight week. The second-year TE has seen his usage improve dramatically over the second half of the season. LaPorta has seen at least ten targets in each of his last three games, and at least six targets in each of his last six. In his previous eight games, he had only seen six targets once.

Without David Montgomery last week, we saw a Lions offense who wasn’t as confident just pounding the ball in the red zone. Jahmyr Gibbs did score a touchdown from the one-yard-line, but Jared Goff also threw two touchdowns from inside the 22-yard-line. I think we’ll continue to see this in Week 17, as the Lions take on a 49ers defense who I believe will overcommit to stopping the run in the red zone because of the 20 TDs they have given up on the ground already this season.

It’s also worth noting that LaPorta went for 97 yards on 13 targets against this 49ers defense in last year’s NFC Championship.

• Pick: Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+200 at bet365)