Saints vs Packers Same-Game Parlay for Monday Night Football (Week 16)

• The Green Bay Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the New Orleans Saints on MNF (Dec. 23)
• The Saints have yet to win a game without QB1 Derek Carr (0-4) and will also be missing Alvin Kamara (groin)
• See a three-leg, +142 Saints vs Packers same-game parlay for Monday Night Football

The Green Bay Packers (10-4, 5-2 home) have a golden opportunity to punch their ticket to the postseason on Monday Night Football in Week 16 as they host they injury-riddled New Orleans Saints (5-9, 2-4 away) at Lambeau Field at 8:15 pm ET. The Saints will be without starting QB Derek Carr (hand) for the second straight week and fifth time overall this season, and the NFC South also-rans are still looking for their first win with rookie backup Spencer Rattler at the helm. Carr isn’t the only significant injury on the New Orleans side and, as a result, Green Bay is a massive 14.5-point home favorite in the Packers vs Saints odds. As you might expect, my Saints vs Packers same-game parlay keys on some Green Bay stars.

Saints vs Packers Same-Game Parlay

Altogether, the three legs of today’s New Orleans vs Green Bay SGP amount to +142 odds, which is a 41.32% implied win probability.

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Saints vs Packers Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Under 48.5

The game total is sitting at 42.5 and I’m targeting the under on the alternate total of 48.5. One of the main reasons I’m betting an under tonight is the weather. The forecast in Green Bay is for freezing temperatures (around 30 Fahrenheit) and one to three inches of snow over the course of the day. Winds will be a moderate 4 MPH.

The conditions are going to make it more difficult for offenses, especially the passing games. I expect the Packers to build an early lead and then start churning clock to shorten the game.

The Saints offense has also been awful with Rattler under center. They’re averaging just 16.0 PPG in his four full games at the helm, and on Monday he won’t even have security blanket Alvin Kamara to hand/dump the ball off to.

New Orleans vs Green Bay SGP Pick #2: Romeo Doubs 25+ Receiving Yards

Doubs has hit at least 28 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games and was spectacular last week in a 30-13 win over Seattle, making two TD catches, one of the highlight-reel variety.

Romeo Doubs has some of the stickiest hands in the game…

Never forget Romeo's value to this offense! pic.twitter.com/c7OFkQEGTg

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) December 16, 2024

I’m keeping the number low here because, as mentioned, I don’t expect a ton of passing yards from either QB. But I still think Doubs is being undervalued in the Saints vs Packers player props. Doubs has had 11 targets over the past two weeks. No other Green Bay pass catcher has had more than nine. He clearly has the trust of Jordan Love and, weather notwithstanding, he should hit this number easily against a subpar New Orleans secondary, which sits fifth-worst in passing yards (242.2 per game).

Saints vs Packers Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Josh Jacobs 60+ Rushing Yards

With passing at a premium tonight, expect a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs on the ground for the Packers, which is something they would be doing regardless of weather. The Packers have the fourth-best run game in the league according to PFF, while the Saints have the second-worst rush defense.

Jacobs, who’s already gone over 1,000 yards for the fourth time in his six-year career, has hit at least 60 yards in nine of his last ten games, with a 43-yard performance against Miami in Week 13 the lone outlier. But Miami has the third-best rush defense in the NFL, per PFF, and was able to limit Jacobs to just 2.3 YPC on 19 carries.

The Saints have little hope of doing the same. If Jacobs gets the roughly 18 carries per game he’s averaged this season, he’ll only need to average 3.33 YPC to hit 60 yards. And as I alluded to, I expect his carries to be in the 20s on a frigid night in Wisconsin.