Expert Tennessee vs Ohio State Prediction & Updated Odds for Saturday’s CFP Game

• Tennessee and Ohio State battle in the CFP Quarterfinal
• The Ohio State Buckeyes are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games vs. top 25 scoring defenses
• Check out our Tennessee vs Ohio State expert prediction and all the odds 

Tennessee and Ohio State meet in the premier CFP quarterfinal on Saturday, December 21.

Josh Heupel’s Volunteers enter as winners of six of their past seven games, while Ryan Day is fighting for his job after losing to Michigan during rivalry week. Tennessee vs Ohio State kicks off from Ohio Stadium in Columbus at 8pm ET on ABC and ESPN.

Here’s a look at the updated odds and our expert predictions for Tennessee vs Ohio State.

Tennessee vs Ohio State Odds

Ohio State are 7.5-point favorites in the updated college football odds. The total for Tennessee vs Ohio State is set at 46.5 points.

The Tennessee vs Ohio State spread has remained consistent since our predictions in early December, while the total has fallen one-point for 47.5.

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Odds as of December 21 at FanDuel. Check out the best football betting apps for Tennessee vs Ohio State.

Tennessee Has Recipe for Upset

Tennessee’s elite defense will face its toughest test of the season against Ohio State. The Vols’ defense sits top-1o in all major metrics, while allowing opponents to convert on just 29.3% of third-downs.

UT’s stellar defensive line has been a major strength. Heupel’s team surrenders just 99.6 rushing yards per game, and the Volunteers front will be called upon to shut down Ohio State’s elite rushing attack. Crucially, edge rusher James Pearce Jr. leads the FBS in pressure percentage (19.8%), and has the potential to turn this game on its head.

James Pearce Jr. is still my EDGE1.

He’s dominated SEC play and improved MASSIVELY as a run defender since 2023. pic.twitter.com/L6jFGjPJdV

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) November 7, 2024

Offensively, freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 2,512 yards 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. The former five-star has turned the football over just once in his past five games.

But, running back Dylan Sampson is the engine that makes the Vols’ offense tick. The junior back has rushed for a sublime 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry. Expect to see Sampson with the ball in his hands early and often as the Vols aim to control the clock.

Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson This Season:

🟠 70 Missed Tackles Forced
🟠 927 Yards After Contact

Leads All SEC Running Backs in BOTH Categories@Vol_Football pic.twitter.com/DD4M3EJSPb

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 20, 2024

Keep in mind, Tennessee is 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Big 10 conference.

Ohio State Betting News & Notes

We last saw the Buckeyes in a disappointing 13-10 loss to Michigan during rivalry week. Ohio State has looked dominant at times this season, even if they’ve faced their fair share of adversity in 2024.

Ohio State has battled through a war of attrition this season. The Buckeyes offensive line has been ravaged by injuries. Star tackle Josh Simmons injured his knee and has been out since October. Following that, veteran center Seth McLaughlin ruptured his Achille in practice in November. On top of that, swing tackle Zen Michalski has a lower-body injury and is questionable.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝗩𝗼𝗹. 𝟭𝟯 𝗢𝗨𝗥 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗬 𝗪𝗥𝗜𝗧𝗘𝗦 𝗢𝗡 🍿🔥🎥 pic.twitter.com/ot9k83Qlx6

— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) December 19, 2024

Head coach Ryan Day will be focused on getting his star receivers involved on Saturday night. Freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith saw just two targets in the second half against Michigan, and finished with five receptions for 35 yards.

Meanwhile, senior Emeka Egbuka hauled in just four catches for 51 yards. Both men will have to see far more of the football for Ohio State to be at their very best in the CFP. Running backs Quinshon Judkins (805 yards, eight touchdowns) and Treveyon Henderson (751 yards, six touchdowns) will aim to make their mark on this CFP contest.

On the other side of the football, Jim Knowles’ defense has been a dominant unit this season. The Buckeyes lead in nation in points and yards allowed per game, as well as opponent red zone scoring percentage (55.17%). Few offensive coordinators have outwitted Knowles and his supreme stop-unit.

Be aware, the Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games at home.

Tennessee vs Ohio State Expert Prediction

Ultimately, each of these defenses is littered with talent. The temperature looks set to fall below 20 degrees, and both quarterbacks have struggled at times this season.

Heupel understands his team has no chance at winning a shootout with Ohio State, so expect Tennessee to look to kill the clock and win a defensive battle. Stick with the under in the Tennessee vs Ohio State CFP showdown.

Pick: Under 46.5 -110