Memphis vs West Virginia Prediction, Pick & Odds – Frisco Bowl 2024

• Memphis is a 6-point favorite over West Virginia in the 2024 Frisco Bowl on Tuesday, December 17
• The spread has moved significantly in the Tigers’ favor since opening lines were released
• Check out the latest Memphis vs West Virginia prediction, pick and odds, below

Bowl Season is here. That means there’s football to sweat every day of the week from now until early January between college and the pros.

On tap for Tuesday night is the Scooters Coffee Frisco Bowl, with #25 Memphis (10-2, 6-2 AAC) listed as the chalk over West Virginia (6-6, 5-4 Big 12) in the latest College Football odds.

Memphis vs West Virginia Odds

The Tigers are currently listed as 6-point favorites, a far cry from where this game opened. Memphis was -1 when opening lines were released, but have dominated the betting action ever since.

Per the College Football public betting trends, the Tigers are garnering 85% of the spread wagers and 87% of the money.

Total-wise, the action favors the under, with that side drawing 61% of the tickets along with 67% of the handle.

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Kickoff is scheduled for 9 pm ET at Toyota Stadium, in Frisco, TX, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of December 17 at 3:30 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on any College Football matchup this week.

Memphis Will Exploit Mismatches

The key to Memphis’ second straight 10-win season is its offense. The Tigers rank ninth in total yards, 15th in scoring, and top-20 in expected points added per drive.

Memphis is incredibly balanced, boasting a bruising rushing attack and an efficient passing game. There were concerns star RB Mario Anderson Jr. might opt out, but those have disappeared. Now, the 5’9, 210-pounder is set to run wild on this porous Mountaineers defense.

The Tigers are Texas bound 🐅

No. 25 Memphis will play West Virginia in the Scooters Coffee Frisco Bowl on December 17🏈#AmericanWay x #AmericanFB pic.twitter.com/hMmpyCLUcZ

— The American (@American_Conf) December 4, 2024

Anderson Jr. is seventh in the nation in rushing TD (17), and 12th in yards (1,292). He’s cleared 137 rushing yards in three straight games, while West Virginia is allowing 6.4 yards per play.

The Mountaineers are also yielding a 92% conversion rate in the red zone, and a 50% success rate on third downs. Anderson is formidable enough on his own, but West Virginia can’t afford to load the box due to the Tigers strong passing scheme.

That’s led by QB Seth Henigan and top target Roc Taylor. Henigan was second in the AAC in passing yards and third in TD. The Mountaineers secondary meanwhile, is 129th out of 129 teams in success rate against the pass, and dead last in EPA per pass allowed.

Uncertainty Surrounds West Virginia

Not only does West Virginia have to overcome a dismal defense in this matchup, they’ll also be featuring an interim head coach. The team fired Neal Brown following the regular season, after they failed to reach seven wins for the fourth time in five years.

OC Chad Scott is now in charge on an interim basis, and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to rally the troops. The offense, in particular, will need inspiration, as this will be a blow out if they can’t punch back.

The good news is that side of the ball is used to carrying the team. QB Garrett Greene is a true dual-threat, flashing a high ceiling with both his legs and his arm. He threw for a season-high 265 yards last time out, and has six 65+ rushing yard games on his resume.

The problem is that he and the rest of the group are turnover-prone. Greene was picked off 11 times this season, while West Virginia averages 1.5 turnovers per game.

Memphis’ defense has plenty of holes, but they excel in two categories. Stopping the run and generating takeaways. They yield just 3.9 yards per rush, and force 1.9 turnovers per outing, the 13th most in the country.

Memphis vs West Virginia Prediction

You might think all the value on the Tigers has dried up, but that might not be the case. Memphis is coming off its best game of the season, manhandling a Tulane team that was a longshot candidate in the College Football Playoff bracket at one point.

MARIO ANDERSON JR OFFICIALLY PUTS TULANE’S COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF HOPES TO REST! pic.twitter.com/qobUCdMO20

— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) November 29, 2024

West Virginia, on the other hand, has surrendered 49+ points in two of its last three, and is fresh off a humiliating 37-point loss to Texas Tech.

Yes, the Mountaineers play in a tougher conference, but the advanced metrics favor the Tigers. Memphis ranks 29 spots higher per SP+. Their offense is top-15 in that system, while the Mountaineers is 56th.

The Tigers are also ranked for the fourth time in 11 years, while West Virginia is one of only three Power 4 teams to not reach the AP Top-25 at any point since 2019.

Memphis vs West Virginia Pick

• Memphis -6 (-110)