UC Davis vs South Dakota Prediction, Odds & Picks – FCS Quarterfinal (Dec. 14)

• We’ve made our UC Davis vs South Dakota prediction for this FCS Quarterfinal matchup
• The Coyotes are favored at home against the Aggies, but don’t count out the underdogs
• Read below for UC Davis vs South Dakota odds, prediction, and best bets

Get ready for an explosive FCS quarterfinal matchup as the #5 seed UC Davis Aggies (11-2) head to Vermillion to take on the #4 seed South Dakota Coyotes (10-2) at the DakotaDome. Kickoff is set for 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, December 14, 2024, with the action broadcast on ESPN+.

The Coyotes opened as 5.5-point favorites, but don’t sleep on the Aggies, who have been a force to be reckoned with as underdogs this season.

Here is our UC Davis vs South Dakota prediction for the FSC Quarterfinals on Saturday.

UC Davis vs South Dakota Odds – FCS Quarterfinals

The betting odds imply that South Dakota has a 67.2% chance of winning the game outright, while UC Davis has a 37% chance of pulling off the upset.

Aggies Betting Analysis

UC Davis has been a juggernaut on offense, thanks in large part to the dynamic duo of quarterback Miles Hastings and running back Lan Larison. Hastings leads the FCS in passing yards with 4,148, to go along with 35 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. His 165.4 passer efficiency rating ranks 6th in the nation.

Larison, meanwhile, is a do-it-all weapon for the Aggies. He leads the FCS in all-purpose yards with 2,323 (178.7 per game) and has found the end zone 23 times (17 rushing, 6 receiving). The Aggies also boast a deep receiving corps, with four players tallying over 490 yards on the season.

Lan Larison is going to end up playing in the NFL for a long time. pic.twitter.com/ubtLWINAJh

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) December 9, 2024

On defense, UC Davis is led by All-Big Sky First Team linebacker David Meyer (113 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 4 INTs) and safety Rex Connors (99 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 INTs). The Aggies rank 23rd in the FCS in rushing defense (119.9 YPG allowed) but 96th in passing defense (240.4 YPG allowed).

But here’s the kicker – UC Davis is a perfect 3-0 against the spread as an underdog this year. They’ve embraced the underdog role and have consistently exceeded expectations when counted out.

Coyotes Betting Analysis

South Dakota’s offense is no slouch either, ranking in the top 5 in the FCS in success rate (2nd), yards per play (5th), scoring offense (4th), and rushing offense (5th). Quarterback Aidan Bouman has been efficient, completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,470 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions.

0:12 (4th)
South Dakota 29,
NDSU 28

USD gets a 25-yard passing TD from Aidan Bouman to Javion Phelps (2-pt try no good)

The DakotaDome just went crazy. pic.twitter.com/CrQV3TCWhO

— Ryan Timmerman (@ryantimmerman3) November 23, 2024

The Coyotes’ ground game is powered by the one-two punch of Travis Theis (976 yards, 16 TDs) and Charles Pierre Jr. (1,153 yards, 15 TDs), who run behind a massive offensive line featuring three All-MVFC selections.

On defense, South Dakota has been stout, ranking 3rd in scoring defense (16.3 PPG), 10th in rushing defense (109.6 YPG), and 33rd in passing defense (192.8 YPG). However, they’ve shown some vulnerability lately, allowing an average of 31.7 points per game over their last three contests.

UC Davis vs South Dakota Prediction

On paper, South Dakota looks like the clear favorite. They’re at home, they’ve been rolling on both sides of the ball, and they got to rest up with that first-round bye. But we all know games aren’t played on paper.

This UC Davis offense has more than enough juice to go toe-to-toe with the Coyotes, and you simply can’t ignore their track record as underdogs this season.

These teams have both been lighting up the scoreboard lately – the over has hit in four of South Dakota’s last five games and three of UC Davis’ last five. I don’t see that changing in this quarterfinal matchup, as both offenses are just too explosive to be contained for four quarters.

When it’s all said and done, I think UC Davis will keep this one within the number and cover the 5.5-point spread. The Aggies are battle-tested and have shown up in every big game this year. The DakotaDome crowd will be rocking, but that won’t rattle this UC Davis squad.

While I wouldn’t be shocked to see them win outright, I’m rolling with UC Davis +5.5 in what should be a back-and-forth shootout. The Aggies have been disrespected by oddsmakers all season long, and Saturday will be no different.

• Prediction: UC Davis +5.5