Falcons vs Raiders Odds, Predictions and Picks for Monday Night Football (Week 15)

• The Falcons are 3.5-point road favorites over the Raiders on Monday Night Football in Week 15
• Desmond Ridder is expected to make his first start of the season for Las Vegas
• Check out the Falcons vs Raiders odds, picks and Player Props for MNF

The NFL has given us two games to sweat on Monday night, with the second coming from Las Vegas. The Raiders (2-11, 1-4 home), losers of nine straight, will host a Falcons (6-7, 3-3 away) squad looking to snap a four-game losing streak. Despite the skid, Atlanta is still very much in the playoff conversation. They’re a game back of the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead, but own the pivotal tiebreaker. Online sportsbooks are leaning the Falcons way in the latest football betting lines, pegging them as the chalk on MNF.

Atlanta Falcons vs Las Vegas Raiders Odds

Atlanta is currently favored by 3.5 points, in a contest with a total of 44.5. This game opened Falcons -4.5, but the early action drove the number down. As it stands, 55% of the spread wagers are on Atlanta, along with 49% of the handle. 

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Total-wise, the action is lopsided to the over according to the NFL public betting percentages. 75% of the over/under tickets are on over 44.5, as is 67% of the total handle.

Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:30 pm ET from Allegiant Stadium, in Las Vegas, NV, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Revenge Game for Ridder

The Raiders have already clinched the under on their projection in the NFL win totals. The prospect for more victories is bleak, especially with their QB situation. First Gardner Minshew and now Aidan O’Connell are on the shelf. That means it’s up to Desmond Ridder, who’ll face the team that drafted him in 2022 draft.

“God works in mysterious ways.”

Raiders QB Desmond Ridder speaks on potentially starting his first game as a Raider against his former team, the Atlanta Falcons, on Monday Night Football.

🎥: By @Sean_Zittel, Vegas Sports Today#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/gD5vOj9ZbR

— Vegas Sports Today (@VegasSportsTD) December 11, 2024

Ridder was 8-9 over two seasons with the Falcons, but that record isn’t a true reflection of how poorly he played. Last season as Atlanta’s starter, Ridder graded out 60th among NFL quarterbacks per Pro Football Focus. He had twice as many turnover worthy plays (26) as big time throws (13), and a worse EPA + completion percentage over expectation than names like Sam Howell, Justin Fields and Will Levis.

Ridder committed 19 turnovers last season, and has had ball security issues already this season in limited action. He’s fumbled three times on 59 snaps, and has already absorbed seven sacks.

Cousins’ Stock at an All-Time Low

The outlook isn’t much better for the Falcons passing game. Kirk Cousins is in the worst slump of his career, throwing 8 interceptions and no touchdowns over the last four games. Atlanta’s offense is averaging less than 15 points per outing over that stretch, while Cousins is now PFF’s 27th graded passer.

Kirk Cousins has remained in the pocket on 99.4% of his dropbacks. It's the highest rate this season and the second highest among all quarterbacks since 2018, per Next Gen Stats. #Falcons

— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) December 13, 2024

Las Vegas’ defense has been terrible for the bulk of the season, but has started to show life lately. They forced three turnovers in Tampa last week, and held the Chiefs to 19 points on Black Friday. They can still rush with the passer effectively with Max Crosby and Co., and there is no one more statuesque in the pocket right now than Cousins.

Falcons vs Raiders Picks

With the Falcons pass game in shambles, expect them to lean run heavy. Atlanta can dominate time of possession by feeding Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, bleeding the clock dry in the process. That type of strategy will help contribute to an under, as will the recent form of these two teams. Over the past three games, the Falcons and Raiders rank 30th and 28th in points per game respectively, and we can expect even more offensive struggles for Las Vegas with Ridder under center.

• Under 44.5 (-110) at BetMGM

ATL vs LV Player Props

At this point, the Falcons know they can’t rely on Cousins’ arm to get them to the playoffs. He’s been wildly inefficient during Atlanta’s losing streak, and this matchup sets up perfectly for their RB’s.

The Falcons are one of only two teams who boast two running backs who’ve exceeded 70 rushing yards over expectation on designed runs. The Raiders meanwhile, have allowed the second most yards on designed runs, and are a bottom-5 tackling team per PFF.